Network Effects of Ballot Initiatives
Reclaim Idaho is a political organization that collects signatures for ballot initiatives. In 2018, Reclaim was able to successfully get a measure on the ballot to expand Medicaid coverage in the state, which passed and has since been implemented, increasing healthcare coverage for over 10k Idahoans. In 2020, they attempted to get a measure on the ballot to expand education funding, which was temporarily halted due to the pandemic before being brought back in 2021. This measure, known as the Quality Education Act, would increase funding for Idaho schools by over 300 million dollars per year.
06/21: 682
07/21: 4869
08/21: 5461
09/21: 7207
10/21: 6546
11/21: >8300
Listed above are the per-month signature totals that Reclaim gathered across the state of Idaho since restarting the “Quality Education Act” drive this year. Notably, the amount of signatures gathered each month increases marginally. While the easiest signatures are gathered early on (people who volunteer for the organization, or who know of Reclaim based on the prior signature drives), the number of signatures still increases as time passes. This is likely due to network effects; as the total number of people who sign the petition increases, a positive signal is sent out. People who are initially skeptical of the petition can see that many others across political parties have signed, and therefore feel more assured that the petition is good and reputable. Network diffusion occurs when people see that many others have signed previously.
Additionally, as the network of people connected to Reclaim expands (through signatures, events, and other activities), the amount of volunteers increases as well. When others hear about Reclaim through people they’re closely connected with or have high trust in, they can be convinced to join the organization and collect signatures as well. This is another example of diffusion, as having signals that others in your network strongly support the efforts of Reclaim can cause you to mirror their actions and show support through volunteering.