Bayes’ Theorem in Everyday Life
This article about Bayes’ Theorem starts by first describing what Bayes’ Theorem is: the combination of prior and new knowledge to make inferences and discoveries about the world around us. The article also touches on how we use a Bayesian approach in everyday life to solve various problems. We use our prior knowledge to rule out some possibilities (the article gives the example of finding a lost cell phone in the fridge) and use new evidence (hearing the phone ringing from indoors) to take a calculated and logical approach to solving the problem by looking for it inside versus outside and knowing that the last time you saw it was near the charger. The article also is a great source for helping us realize how important and common the Bayesian approach is used across all areas of work and life, while at the same time reminding us that it isn’t without its flaws. Bayesian reasoning is used in many areas of human enquiry, from cancer screening to risk assessment for insurance companies. Using this approach can be problematic when priors are used and implemented incorrectly and as a result lead to misleading conclusions. Although Bayesian methods are very helpful in solving problems and answering questions, we have to be careful what we assume is given when applying this method.
The article directly touches on the topic of Bayes Rule, which we covered in class, and how what we learned about can be applied to real life situations. In class, we looked at how Bayes’ Rule could help us figure out the probability that you have COVID given that you tested positive but have no symptoms. The article takes the same ideas we used to solve this in class example and shows that they can be applied to a wide variety of things in society like risk assessment and other medical diagnosis. The article also relates to the topics of information cascades that we covered in class. Using Bayes’ rule we can make logical predictions and inferences about the best decision to make in a situation given what we already know and what new knowledge we acquire. If the prior knowledge consistently results in the same outcome when we use Bayes rule then an information cascade is likely to occur and everyone will act in the same way after a certain point. As we saw in lecture, Bayesian approaches to solving questions in the world around can be useful and insightful and this article from The Conversation highlights this fact and reminds us of the power and importance this way of thinking has.
Link: https://theconversation.com/bayes-theorem-the-maths-tool-we-probably-use-every-day-but-what-is-it-76140