Why England has a Second Wave of COVID
https://www.cityam.com/the-public-are-not-to-blame-for-the-second-lockdown/
This article talks about how there has been a second lockdown in place in England due to an increase in cases of COVID-19. The article starts off by refuting the claim that it is the public’s fault for the second spike in cases. They say that the reason for the second spike is because the government allowed their warnings to be undermined by the actions that the police took by not dispersing large crowds that gathered throughout the summer in outdoor areas in support of the Black Lives Movement. This made people think that it was actually not very dangerous to gather in large outdoor crowds, despite the government officially maintaining that this was not a good idea. However, people continued to gather in protests as well as at crowded beaches. Most people who did go to the beaches did not get sick at all, and those who did get sick were not deathly ill for the most part, which also makes the government’s claims less valid. Over time, people began to put less weight on the public information that the government is giving out and more on their own private experiences.
The more people that rely on their own information rather than that put out by the government, the more people follow this behavior. Though this may seem irrational since private information is only partial information, when people see their friends relying on their private information more than public information from the government, they, in turn, place more weight on private information as well. This results in the current government information campaign about the importance of social distancing and self isolation to fall on deaf ears for most English citizens. This is called cascading behavior resulting from an information cascade. Each person observes the previous person’s actions, and makes their decisions based on this. People may choose their decision based on direct benefit effect, which could work in both directions. On one hand, if they go to a crowded area and get COVID, this will be detrimental to them, but if they go out and have fun with their friends and do not get sick, they have a direct benefit because they get to interact with friends and not be stuck at home. If they do not get sick the first time they go out, they are more likely to continue this behavior. In order to combat this, the English government should double down on their stay at home measures and make sure police officers are enforcing the orders, so people are not receiving mixed messages.