Game Theory with Poker
Poker is a wonderful game that involves both luck and skill. What separates poker from the rest of the games at a casino is that, if done correctly, a player can maximize his expected outcome over time if played enough. This of course, involves knowing the game quite well, knowing the probabilities of certain events, both where you win and lose, and simply put knowing when to bluff and fold. A key part about maximizing your profit from your play style is to know what your opponent is doing/thinking. In this sense, Game theory is a tool that can be justifiably applied to playing poker.
In this blog post, I would like to focus on Texas holdem, a game with each player dealt 2 cards, and eventually a five card board shared between players. There are three rounds of betting open (not including pref-lop) open to all players at the table. The trick to poker is to use the every signal/action from other players and use it to your advantage. Based on preflop action of players, you should immediately assign a range to said player. For example, If a player 3-bets (or re-raises) pre-flop, you know he is strong and should put him at the top of his range. This will provide you with more information on what to do when certain cards come out on the flop. If they hit match his range, you may want to stay away from this hand, however if it does not, you can pursue this hand aggressively, regardless of if you have a good hand or not (this is when bluffing comes in as a key factor).
The other part in game theory other than knowing what the other player is thinking, is them knowing if you will make the optimal decision. Believe it or not, according to a pro in an article on game theory (see link at bottom).
“According to the pro:
- everybody knows who I am
- everybody knows how I play
- there’s no reason to get out of line”
This follows a concept referred to as “Game Theory Optimal” or GTO. The best online player last year was said to followed this strategy, and the thing about online poker is it can be broken down purely to probabilites and signals of players (you take out the option of live reads at a live table). This theory helps you decide when to bet 80% of the time and to call 20% of the time, and then when to call a bet 20% of the time and fold 80% of the time. Unfortunately for humans, bots (which are supposedly being implemented into online gaming sites unknowingly) are much better at learning probabilities, applying GTO with perfect optimal, and taking our money. So unless you took diligent notes in your Game Theory class, make sure to stay away from online poker once bots are introduced.
https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/game-theory-optimal-solutions-and-poker-a-few-thoughts-22654.htm#targetText=GTO%20stands%20for%20%E2%80%9Cgame%20theory,to%20being%20strictly%20results%20oriented.