Why the Flu Doesn’t Wipe Out College Campuses
Flu season hits every year, without fail, which is why a flu shot is created every year to increase immunity to the disease that infects many people each year. However, college students have a tendency to not bother with the shot and this is a problem because even though students are young and tend to be otherwise healthy they are constantly in highly populated areas, such as dormitories, lecture halls, or dining halls and are in constant contact with people who may be infected. Many colleges are making efforts to change this by offering free or cheap flu shots that are offered at flexible times to encourage students to protect themselves, decreasing the probability of infection.
The likelihood of a disease dying out is determined by its basic reproductive number, Ro, which is calculated by multiplying the probability of infection by the number of people that an infected person is in contact with, if R0 is less than zero the disease will die out. If less students get the vaccination but can’t leave their room if they’re infected the probability of infection is higher but the number of people the ill person is in contact with is much lower. If more students get the vaccination but still continue with their normal routine the probability of infection is much lower, while the number of people an individual comes in contact with is much higher. Both of these scenarios keep R0 low, explaining why the flu only lasts a “season.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/30/college-flu-shots_n_6054946.html