The Science of Winning Poker
In this article by Christopher Chabris, he explains how winning in poker doesn’t necessarily always result in winning all the hands, rather it is choosing the correct strategies based on probabilities. For example, if you have pocket 7’s (2 7’s in your hand) and before the flop (before you see the first 3 cards) you decide to shove and go all-in, you are in a good position to win at an 81% rate. However, even if the other person has a lower percentage hand, like pocket 6’s, they may still end up winning the pot if a 6 falls onto the board. In this case, you “semi-bluffed” with your hand assuming it would be good enough at a percentage p, but you were wrong. The player wants to be able to win the most money, and sometimes probabilities are in your favor but the cards are not. From this example we see why a shove all-in, hoping that your probability is good enough without considering what the other player has, is not a good strategy. Rather, you should play out the hand, and base your decision off your “opponent’s “range” given all the actions he has thus far taken.” If he had waited until the flop, and saw a board with 6, 10, Jack, the player with the pocket 7’s may have realized that a better decision is to fold in that case when the opponent bet off the 6.
This is similar to what we discussed in class on game theory and prisoner’s dilemma. It isn’t enough to be in a good standing based off only your own cards. You must also consider other people’s strategies and adjust your own strategy based off of what they do, or how they bet. If a player for example always bluffs, perhaps calling their all- in on a somewhat average hand may be the right move. However, if someone consistently plays consistently, even if they all-in and you have pocket 7’s it may not be the best decision since they could be playing a better hand. Therefore, in poker it is about reading your opponent’s strategy, and considering all possible plays.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323610704578625812355516182?mg=id-wsj