Is the World in Store for More Trumps?
Recently, the American electorate surprised many both at home and abroad by electing Donald Trump to the White House. Many simply wrote off the idea that a demagogue such as Trump could force his way to the presidency in the face of intense media scrutiny, little political know-how and a political establishment all but repulsed by him. Yet, in just a few short months Trump will be taking over the reins as president despite many saying up the very end he has no shot at president – The Huffington Post gave him a measly 1.6% chance on election day. With pollsters and pundits humbled over their inability to foresee a Trump victory, it leaves room for what else the media might be getting wrong. Trump’s surprise success despite poor polling closely mirrors the recent populist revolt in Great Britain where voters also shocked many by choosing to leave the European Union in a swell of nationalist populism. Now, with a clear precedent being set that voters in the west are not afraid to repudiate the political establishment, many are looking at the very real possibility that France’s hard right leader, Marine Le Pen, could become president. Pollsters and politicians in France worried about Le Pen’s chances of presidency warned French voters that her chances of president became much more real. Despite not being a clear front-runner, many now doubt the accuracy of the polls to correctly guess what the people are thinking. Others warn that the United States’ decision to elect Trump has emboldened those on the hard right who are still skeptical of actually winning a major election.
On the other hand, these results should not have been as surprising to those who have a grasp on how information cascades work and can influence groups of people who might otherwise think differently. The power of following the crowd can be decisive in electing fringe candidates like Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. Rather than the French drawing from their own opinions, the French electorate is now likely to keep in mind that other western countries are embracing candidates with a nationalist and populist streak. Maybe Britain’s decision to leave the European Union was a wise considering the instability of the European Union. If Britain is ahead of the game in reverting to its own currency, certainly French voters should keep that in the back of their mind. This line of thinking is certainly going through French voter’s minds as their election nears closer. If pollsters begin to understand the importance of information cascades and how the phenomenon of following the crowds can sway voters, maybe we won’t be in as much of a shock the next time we see a Trump lookalike heading a country.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/world/europe/donald-trump-marine-le-pen.html