The Power of Polls in the 2016 Elections
The elections this year did not go as anticipated. Statistical models which had been able to predict the winner in presidential elections for the past few decades placed the probability of Hillary winning this election at near 70% (Acton 2016). Experts raved at how Trump’s candidacy was a joke and that his campaign stood no chance of succeeding against Hillary’s.
And yet, here we are, against all odds, with Donald Trump elected the 45th POTUS.
Perhaps inaccurate polls were a result of false assumptions. Perhaps the survey data was not extensive enough. Though one question remains below the surface — what if the preliminary prediction polls and the knowledge they conveyed were the cause behind their own inaccuracy?
Both candidates this year had high unaffordability rankings. In fact, neither candidate was favored at over 50% (Collins 2016). Both were considered corrupt and had blatant character flaws. Sadly, therefore, the elections seemed to revolve around a “choose the lesser of two evils” mentality. Despite this fact, a good portion of millennials believed that the lesser of two evils in this election was Secretary Clinton (Acton 2016, Lord 2016). Given this, one would expect the majority of millennials to vote for her. They didn’t though. Had she in fact gotten votes from the aforementioned millennials (especially in states like Philadelphia, Michigan, and Florida), she’d have won (Lord 2016).
In interactions among millennials before the elections, most seemed to prefer not to vote. This was under the reassurance that Hillary would win anyway. After all, the polls were so dominant in asserting that she would win. If one could afford to protest Hillary’s corruption while still electing the lesser of two evils, what’s the harm in that? Why not express frustration with the conspiracy behind the DNC’s primary elections while still confident that Trump will not become president?
The answer is simple – because such thinking is infectious and self-destructive. Attitudes such as these became popular, spread, and resulted in Trump’s election as POTUS. Despite it being in one’s direct benefit to vote for his or her candidate during the election, most millennials relied on information which asserted they need not vote to achieve their ideal election results.
Now, from the perspective of our network theories, perhaps information is the culprit behind Trump’s election. The polls, with information which was not necessarily an indicative of the truth, showed an initial favorability towards Hillary. As a result, people began relying on the fact that Hillary would get the majority of the vote regardless of their own course of action. The polls acted like 50 people pulling out a blue ball from a bin that could be either majority red or majority blue. With the knowledge that there were only 3 balls in that bin in the first place, of course people believed the bin was majority blue. Millennials, therefore began to believe that Hillary would win, and considered voting for her less crucial. Thus the prevailing attitude becomes “Hillary will win for sure. I can protest by not voting and still be sure Trump won’t be president.”
The problem is that Hillary would not win for sure, and Trump could (and did in fact) become president.
Voting is a scenario where one should rely on his/her own instincts and vote for the candidate they see most fit. It is not a scenario where one’s actions should depend on a poll or their perception of reality.
Elections are driven by ideals. Failing to realize that can and will result in disaster.
Sources:
Acton, Gemma. “Citi Ups Chances of Clinton Win to 70 Percent as Trump Stumbles.” CNBC. CNBC, 11 Oct. 2016. Web. 13 Nov. 2016.
Collins, Eliza. “Poll: Clinton, Trump Most Unfavorable Candidates Ever.” USA Today. Gannett, 31 Aug. 2016. Web. 13 Nov. 2016.
Lord, Emma. “The Millennial Electoral Maps Might Give You Hope, But Our Generation Has A Lot Of Work To Do.” The Millennial Electoral Maps Might Give You Hope, But Our Generation Has A Lot Of Work To Do. Bustle, 9 Nov. 2016. Web. 13 Nov. 2016.