From Drew Montreuil, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University
Last week, temperatures were mostly 2-4 degrees above normal for most of the state, except eastern and northern New York which was 4-6 degrees above normal. Precipitation was mostly an inch or less with some pockets across Upstate New York exceeding an inch. Base 50 Growing Degree Days were generally between 100-140, with slightly high amounts near New York Cit and on Long Island and slightly lower amounts in areas of higher terrain.
A cold front is crossing the region this morning. A line of showers and maybe some thunder, along with gusty winds, will accompany the front. Additional showers are possible prior to the front as well. High temperatures will generally be in the low 70s this morning before the front. By early this evening, much of the state should be in the upper 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with some low and mid 40s in northeast New York.
Friday should remain dry, albeit a bit cloudy. High temperatures will mostly be within a couple degrees on either side of 60º, except the Hudson Valley and Downstate areas which will approach or exceed 70º. Overnight lows should be mainly in the mid 40s, though some 30s may be possible across northeast New York. Frost is not expected.
Another system will move through on Saturday with occasional rain showers. High temperatures will have a hard time reaching 60º for most places. Overnight lows will again be mainly in the mid 40s with some 30s may be possible across northeast New York and no expected frost.
Sunday looks mostly dry, though a lake effect rain shower may be possible across western and central New York. High temperatures will be similar to Friday and Saturday with upper 50s and a few low 60s. Low temperatures will be colder however, with low and mid 40s for most areas and some mid or even low 30s, along with a frost risk, in northeast New York.
Monday and Wednesday look mostly dry, but there may be a few showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate somewhat, with highs in the mid and upper 60s on Monday and Wednesday, but cooler temperatures near 60º on Tuesday with the rain. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s and low 50s.
Overall, through the next week, the chance of frost appears very low, except in the normally cold areas of northeast New York, such as Saranac Lake, where some patchy frost may be possible Monday morning.
The 5 day precipitation totals will generally be one half to one inch across the Southern Tier and I-81 corridor. Other areas should see less than half an inch. The 8-14 Day outlook calls for more below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
National Weather Service Watch/Warnings map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/
NRCC Drought Page which features the US Drought Monitor Map (updated every Thursday): http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html
