Jessica Spaccio, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University
Last week felt like summer with some areas reaching over 10 degrees above normal. Areas in the far north and in the Catskills were 4-6 degrees above normal. Precipitation varied widely, with isolated areas getting less than a quarter inch, others getting over 4 inches (flooding in Penn Yan) and the majority of areas falling in the half to two inch range. Base 50 growing degree days picked up with most areas in the 50-90 range, colder areas below 50 and over 90 along the Finger Lakes and Hudson River.
*Flash Flood Watch posted for Western to Central NY ) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch)
Hazardous Weather Outlook for other areas (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook)
Heavy rain event Thursday night into Friday. Then near normal temperatures with cloudy but mostly dry conditions.
Today will continue to have above normal temperatures ranging from the mid 70’s to low 80’s. Showers & thunderstorms associated with a cold front will move across the state beginning this evening in Western NY and slowly moving eastward bringing widespread rainfall for Friday. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower 50’s in western NY, but warmer in the mid 50’s to low 60’s east of the cold front.
The cold front will bring a rainy, cooler day with highs in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s (cooler in western NY and warmer in eastern NY). There is potential for a heavy rainfall event. Expecting 1-2” with localized heavier amounts. Overnight temperatures will be cooler, in the low 40’s to mid 50’s. Rainfall will continue in eastern NY as the front moves out.
Behind the cold front, Saturday will be cooler but a mostly dry day with a just a few scattered showers possible. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s. Overnight temperatures will be cooler yet, in the 40’s.
Sunday’s highs will be in the 60’s with a chance of scattered showers, but dry for most areas. Lows will be in the 40’s.
Monday’s temperatures will again be in the 60’s with scattered showers possible and lows in the 40’s.
Tuesday’s highs will be in the 60’s with lows in the 40’s.
Wednesday will warm up a bit with highs in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Lows will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.
The five-day precipitation amounts will range from 1 ¼ to 3 inches.
The 8-14 day outlook (May22-28) is showing normal temperatures for most of the state; above normal for the southern Hudson Valley and Catskill regions. Precipitation outlook is above normal.
Maps of 8-14 day outlooks: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
National Weather Service watch/warnings map: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/
NRCC Drought Page which features the US Drought Monitor map (updated every Thursday): http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html
