Drew Montreuil
NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University
Last week, temperatures were 3-6 degrees below normal for most of the state. Parts of eastern and northernNew Yorkwere closer to normal, but still below average. Precipitation was highest over the Catskills, where over 3″ fell. Most other areas got 1-3″ with a few localized areas seeing less than an inch. Base 50 Growing Degree Days were less than 50 statewide except for Long Island, which saw 75-100.
Today will be a quiet day as the region will be between systems. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s with some sunshine. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.
A storm system will bring an area of rain tomorrow, with the core of the rain roughly passing from the Southern Tier intoEastern New York. High temperatures should mostly be in the 60s. Overnight lows should be mainly in the 40s, though some 30s may be possible across southwestNew York. Frost is not expected.
A few showers will be possible on Saturday, but most areas will see little to no rain. High temperatures will be in the low to upper 60. Overnight lows will again mainly be in the 40s with a few isolated spots dipping into the 30s.
There will be a higher chance for rain on Sunday, especially across western and southern New York. High temperatures will be in the 60s for most, though areas in the rain may stay in the 50s. Low temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 40s.
A few left over showers will be possible on Monday, with dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s Monday, but should warm into the upper 60s Tuesday and 70s by Wednesday. Overnight lows should generally be in the 40s all three days.
Overall, through the next week, the chance of frost appears low.
The 5 day precipitation totals will generally be less than ½” across western and northern New York. Areas across southeastNew Yorkcould see a couple of inches of rain. The 8-14 Day outlook calls for near to below normal temperatures with above normal precipitation.
Maps of 8-14 day outlooks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
National Weather Service Watch/Warnings map
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/
NRCC Drought Page which features the US Drought Monitor Map (updated every Thursday): http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html
