Andrew Montreuil, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University
Temperatures last week were generally 3-6º above normal state wide. Precipitation was variable, depending on where individual thunderstorms produced heavy rain. Generally, areas in the Finger Lakes, Catskills, Mohawk Valley and North Country saw less than 1”. Western New York, the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Adirondacks, however, saw over an inch. Base 50 Growing Degree Days were 150-175 statewide, except for the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Catskills and Allegheny Plateau, where there were 125-150.
The next few days will be dominated by an upper level low stalled out over the Great Lakes. Waves of energy will spin around this low, bringing a chance for significant rain to the state.
For Thursday, scattered thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. Storms should develop over the Finger Lakes early this afternoon, before moving towards eastern New York later. Additional storms, some with strong winds, will be possible over Western New York. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s.
Friday morning, low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. More widespread thunderstorms are likely, with some strong storms across the Southern Tier and southeast New York. Most areas should see rain. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, dependent on morning sunshine. Areas that see morning sun are more likely to reach the mid 80s, while areas with clouds should remain in the 70s.
For Saturday, morning lows will be in the low 60s. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible, but most areas should stay dry. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some locations reaching 80.
On Sunday, the low over the Great Lakes will begin to depart. A couple showers are possible, especially over northern New York. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
A few showers or storms are possible for Monday afternoon, but most areas will likely stay dry. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
On Tuesday, a new, but weakening system will come into the state. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 60s, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Wednesday morning will also have morning lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Most areas will be dry, but a couple showers or storms cannot be ruled out.
Expected rainfall over the next 5 days should be near or over an inch for most areas in the state. Higher amounts, possibly near 2”, will be possible across western New York and the St. Lawrence Seaway, as well as in any heavier thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The 8-14 Day outlook calls for above normal temperatures to near or slightly above normal precipitation.
Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/
NRCC Drought Page which features the US Drought Monitor map (updated every Thursday):
http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html
