Degrees of Separation, Triadic Closure, and Their Impact on Military Alliances
In “A Three-Degree Horizon of Peace in the Military Alliance Network”, authors Weihua Li, Aisha Bradshaw, Caitlin Clary, and Skyler Cranmer outline their research findings on the current state of defensive military alliances. The researchers communicate the idea that military alliances between countries can motivate peaceful relations between other countries, as countries who share common allies are more likely to become allied themselves. The researchers argue that indirect alliances of up to three degrees of separation can strongly suppress conflict between these two countries. These ideas, to me, emphasize just how critical alliances between countries are to world peace: One alliance between two major powers can motivate a wide range of alliances between other countries connected within three degrees of separation. In short, alliance and peaceful relations breed further alliance and further peace. As documented in class, the largest degree of separation between people is diminishing as social media and technology continues to boom–Facebook studies show that we are all connected by just 4-5 degrees of separation, while we used to be connected by 6-7. The same can be said about countries, who are connected more closely than ever before. Given how interconnected the world has become, two countries are more likely to be allied indirectly within 3 degrees of separation than ever before. Alliances and rivalries will have greater impact on a greater number of countries in this closely connected network.
An idea that can explain the greater likelihood of peaceful relations for countries within three degrees of separation of an alliance is the Strong Triadic Closure Property. In the article, it is mentioned that if actor i is friends with actor j and actor j is friends with actor k, actor i is likely to become friends with actor k. This is the case because i and k are likely to have a good amount in common with each other if they both have a positive relationship with j. There is also stress on i and k to create a link and form a trio, and j may encourage the two to become closer. This idea was outlined in networks class as the triadic closure principle, and can be extended to the circumstance of alliances between countries. If country A is allied with country B who is allied with country C, country B and country C are likely to maintain a peaceful relationship given that they share a friend and are likely to agree on the security status quo. Even countries connected by a second or third degree of separation from the two allies would be more likely to agree on the security status quo, as outlined in the article. This ties back to the core message I’m communicating that alliances have deep impact on peaceful relations globally, since countries are more closely connected than ever before.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601895