Low cow prices and opportunity?

While the price of feeder and finished cattle has kept up with last year at this time, cull cow prices are $8-$10/cwt lower than 2017, https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-and-grain-list-reports. Contrary to the idea that this is due to increase in slaughter of dairy cows, the decline is due to several other factors. According to Akton Kalo, CME Daily Livestock Monitor, http://www.dailylivestockreport.com/, dairy slaughter is only up slightly from last year.

“[Dairy slaughter]…is not having that big of an impact although it is increasing at a time when beef cow slaughter is up as well.  The main issue in the cow market these days is ground beef demand.  Retailers featured ground beef extensively over the summer.  plus you had some chains that shifted to using only fresh, which also added to demand.  Seasonally ground beef demand comes off after Labor Day and cheap pork/chicken is making it harder to compete in the retail case.  90CL is now down to $190 compared to $215-220 three months ago.”

Thin, but healthy cheap cows may provide an opportunity if you have adequate inexpensive feed. Given the seasonality of cull cow prices the current price for breaker cows at $52-$55/cwt has the potential to go to $62/cwt. If you have cows BCS >5.0, then selling now makes the most sense. But at BCS <5.0, with cheap feed, you may be able to profit by holding her until next spring.