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Arab Spring, Constituent Assembly - Tunisia, Elections in Tunisia, News & Current Events, Reference, Tunisia, Tunisian revolution

Constituent Assembly Elections in Tunisia, 23 October, 2011

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Tunisian Constituent Assembly election, 2011

One of the earlier demands of  demonstrations following the 14 January, 2011 revolution that ousted the Tunisian dictatorship (and the resignation of the first interim government) was the formation of a Constituent Assembly. On 3 March, 2011, Tunisia’s interim government announced that an election for a Constituent Assembly would be held on 24 July, 2011. The Assembly will have 218 members including 19 seats reserved to Tunisians living abroad; its main task is to write a new constitution that would pave the way for legislative and presidential elections. It will also decide whether the country gets a presidential or parliamentary system, and whether a separation of religion and state becomes law. Once elected, the Constituent Assembly will have the power to either immediately appoint a new government or extend the current one’s term–which lasts until the general elections scheduled for 23 October, 2011. (Senior party members of the disbanded former ruling party, the Constitutional Democratic Rally (aka RCD, fr.) will be banned from standing in the election if they were in politics within the last ten years.)

The election date, however, had been a source of contention between major political players. On 22 May 2011, the head of the country’s newly formed Independent High Electoral Commission (aka ISIE, fr.) suggested a delay to 16 October, 2011, because more time was needed to prepare electoral lists, including putting  millions into the new electoral database, and renew over 400,000 old identity cards. Negotiations between the varying political parties, the High Commission for the Realization of the Revolution’s Goals, the Electoral Commission and the interim government followed. Also, many recently formed political parties* say they need more time to prepare. The elections were finally postponed to 23 October, 2011. (For in-country voters holding a valid state-issued ID voting is a one-day event, 23 Oct.; out-of-country voters holding a valid passport vote starting Oct. 20 until 23 Oct.). The date was the result of several weeks of negotiations between political groups.

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On Monday (July 11th) voter registration for the October elections began; Tunisians have until Tuesday (August 2nd) to register to vote.** A voter registration drive More than 2,000 people were trained to assist in the registration process and the overall number of voters is expected to reach 7.9 million (of the ca. 10 million Tunisian population.)

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Because of low rate of voter registration, the Independent High Electoral Commission (ISIE) extended the deadline to August 14th communique-30-07-20111[1].  communique-30-07-20111[1]The closing date was previously set for August 2nd. However, registration will continue through October 12th for servicemen and members of the security forces, youths turning 18, voters whose ban on participation is lifted, and for Tunisians returning from overseas.

As of August 14th the percentage of registered voters on the electoral lists reached 55% of eligible voters.

From August 20th through August 26th, lists of voters would be posted at the commission’s regional offices, municipal headquarters, and at diplomatic and consular missions for Tunisian residents abroad.

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*There are currently more than 100 recognized and officially sanctioned political parties in Tunisia. And although electoral campaigning will officially take place between 1 and 21 October, political parties have been making use of commercials to promote their image and activities. Polls show that the Nahda party (Islamist) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) are the two largest and most well-known who will snap more votes in the upcoming election.

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**Tunisian Constituent Assembly Elections – Why and How?

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POLL SAMPLES:

Conducted/
Published		 Polling Organisation/Client Sample size Nahda PDP Ettajdid FDTL POCT
March, 2011 ANSAmed 1,012 29.0% 12,3% 7.1% – –
July, 2011 3C Etudes ? 14.3% 4.7% – 1.6% 0.8%
July, 2011 Al Jazeera 1,244 21.0% 8.0% – – 5.0%

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PARTY RALLIES:

حزب العمل الوطني الديمقراطي = Party of National Democratic Action (socialist: Hizb al-‘Amal al–Watani al–Dimuqrati; French: Parti du travail patriotique et démocratique, PTPD) [ July, 2011 (2mins.)]

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حركة النهضة = The Renaissance Party or Nahda (Islamist: النهضة Hizb al-Nahda, also Hizb Ennahda, Ennahdha; French: Parti de la Renaissance; Mouvement Ennahda, ME) [ July, 2011 (1.21min.)]

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احركة الوطنيين الديموقراطيين = The Movement of the Patriots Democrats (Marxist / Pan-Arabist Arabic: Harakat al-wataniyun al-dimuqratiyun; French: Mouvement des patriotes démocrates, MOUPAD) [ July, 2011 (2.28mins.)]

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The following information is provided by the Project on Middle East Democracy:

Elections in Tunisia:

The 2011 Constituent Assembly

Frequently Asked Questions

Middle East

(Middle East and North Africa International Foundation for Electoral Systems
| Washington, DC 20006 | www.IFES.org
13 July 2011)

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Tunisia Prepares for October 23 Elections

Yesterday, the IFES released a report detailing Tunisia’s new election process which started July 11. Elections will take place on October 23, 2011 for in-country voters holding a valid state-issued ID and will begin October 20 for out-of-country voters holding a valid passport. Currently, the transitional government in Tunisia is comprised of interim president Fouad Mebazaa, prime minister Beji Caid el Sebsi as well as a cabinet.

The October 23rd elections will allow voters to elect representatives to the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) which will have one year to draft a new constitution; 199 members will be from Tunisia and 19 representing Tunisian expatriate countries in Europe and North America, totaling 218 members.

The current structure of governance includes a system of decrees and decree-laws [which are drafted by the Tunisian Higher Commission for the Achievement of the Objectives of the Revolution and the Democratic Transition (Political Reform Commission)*, and then signed by the president]. Decree-laws include but are not limited to:

  • No. 4 (3/23/2011): outlines provisional division of government authority
  • No. 27 (4/18/2011): establishes and defines the Instance Supérieure Indépendante pour les Élections (ISIE)
  • No. 35 (5/10/2011): outlines the election process

Also, the reports articulates the electoral system; it will follow a closed-list proportional representation system which requires that 1/2 of representatives be female and the other 1/2 male. Also, 27 domestic constituencies and four out-of-country constituencies are established.

Important dates include the following:

  • July 11-August 2: voter registration
  • September 1-7: candidate registration
  • October 1-21: electoral campaigning
  • October 23: election day

According the report, there are 7 million domestic and 1 million abroad that are of voting age. Expected voter turnout is approximated at 90-95%. However, only 43% polled knew “what they are voting for”. The ISIE launched a campaign on July 11th to advertise elections and introduced a new website to inform voters of the election process, candidates, and voting rules.

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*Arabic: الهيئة العليا لتحقيق أهداف الثورة والاصلاح السياسي والانتقال الديمقراطي ou al-hayʾat al-ʿalyā li-taḥqīq ʾahdāf al-ṯawrah wal-aṣlāḥ al-siyāsī wal-intiqāl = French: Instance supérieure ou Haute instance pour la réalisation des objectifs de la révolution, de la réforme politique et de la transition démocratique.

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Arab Spring, Archives, Blog, News & Current Events, Reference, Tunisia, Tunisian revolution

Tunisian Revolution 6 Months Later

Firsthand Account on Some Recent  Developments

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The Tunisian Revolution* is for real! There is a profound change in the country at all levels: Social, regional, institutional, sectarian, etc.  For the first time in anyone’s memory, people can talk, argue, and disagree vehemently. You really can write anything you want. You can also say anything you want and talk to anyone you want. People encounter one another in public meetings or political rallies and discover they have much in common (there are more than 100 mostly new political parties so far and counting–in a country of nearly 10 million residents).

There’s, however, wide-spread chaos and lawlessness throughout the country (and the fine line between chaos and normalcy is impossible to locate!). Yesterday, the main highway to the Cap-Bon region was blocked by tomatoes farmers protesting government imposed tariffs and prices for their produce. The army and police special forces were present there but only to prevent violence … We had to take a detour of a couple of hours through another province and many rural dirt roads to get to our destination. Similar scenes take place daily all over the country, in addition to sit-ins, street marches and demonstrations and strikes …

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Roadblock by tomato farmers in Cap-Bon, northeast Tunisia, on 6 July, 2011 and following days
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The Tunisian political classes were as surprise by their Revolution as anyone else. Many discussions about the constitution, the legal system, the economy, etc. have yet to be held, and will take time. There are no electoral laws, no electoral rolls. As yet there is no legitimate government, only a provisional one, and thus no clear mandate for reform. The longer it takes for real change to occur the greater the chance for disappointment, discontent, disorder and chaos and even counter-revolution. Nobody ever joins an uprising to resume business as usual.

The strange thing about post-revolutionary Tunisia is: Almost everything is still the same. The provisional caretaker government, in charge until elections can be held, includes elder statesmen who have been around for decades. Many of the same figures still run the same ministries as they did under the old regime. The police are less omnipresent but they are still there (actually, they are extremely polite now, something never seen before in Tunisia! I was told many were terrified to be accused of killing or torturing people during and before the revolution).

Tunisians began the Arab Spring. In order to sustain their hard-won democracy, they must deal with resurgent Islamists (diverse groups!), unemployment, a struggling economy and many other challenges.

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*Foreign media regularly call the Tunisian Revolution “The Jasmin Revolution.” No one here calls it that! It’s the “Freedom and Dignity Revolution.”
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Interior Ministry (e.g., Internal security), July 2011

Demo in Front of the Interior Ministry [.52 sec.]

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Government Plaza at Kasba in Tunis

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Graffiti against previous dictator Ben Ali and his wife
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“How beautiful Tunisia is without Ben Ali Baba and the 40 Trabelsi thieves (ref. to the dictator’s ‘familiy’)”

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Interior Ministry, Tunis

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Bourguiba Avenue / Porte de France & French Embassy, Tunis

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On January 22nd the new Tunisian government lifted licensing restrictions on the importation of books, publications and film. Books and publications that were once confiscated by the Border Police are now making their way to bookstores. Extreme censorship on the imported book has strangled intellectuals – both writers and readers – and in the absence of freedom, one cannot talk about creativity. In previous years, the Tunisian International Book Fair earned a poor reputation because of strict censorship imposed on imported works, forcing exhibitors to focus on cookbooks and fiction. In the end, many just didn’t bother to attend the fair. The number of the new publications having obtained receipts reached as of July, 2011, 148 publications, which notably include daily, weekly, bimonthly and monthly publications.

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National Library, Tunis

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National Archives, Tunis

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Al-Kitab Bookstore in downtown Tunis, one of the most famous in the country. All kinds of titles, previously censored under the dictatorship, are now available, mainly  in Arabic and in French.
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Book sale at a rally of a new political party

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Used book seller on a Tunis street
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(Roadblock by tomato farmers in Cap-Bon, northeast Tunisia, on 7, 6 2011 and following days)(Roadblock by tomato farmers in Cap-Bon, northeast Tunisia, on 7, 6 2011 and following days)
Afghanistan, Archives, Biography, eBooks, Islam, News & Current Events, Pakistan, Reference, Women

“Three Cups of Tea” Spilled?! Swallowed?!

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“Three cups of tea :  one man’s mission to fight terrorism and build nations– one school at a time”

by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin.

Greg Mortenson was accused of fabricating important parts of Three Cups of Tea, his bestselling 2006 memoir about building schools in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The book describes Greg Mortenson’s transition from an “American mountain-climber to a humanitarian committed to reducing poverty and promoting education for girls in Pakistan and Afghanistan.” In 1993 Greg Mortenson “was  mountain-climbing bum wandering emaciated and lost through Pakistan’s Karakoram. After he was taken in and nursed back to health by the people of a Pakistani village, he promised to return one day and build them a school. From that rash, earnest promise grew one of the most incredible humanitarian campaigns of our time–Mortenson’s one-man mission to counteract extremism by building schools, especially for girls, throughout the breeding ground of the Taliban. In a region where Americans are often feared and hated, he has survived kidnapping, fatwas issued by enraged mullahs, death threats, and wrenching separations from his wife and children. But his success speaks for itself–at last count, his Central Asia Institute had built fifty-five schools.” (From publisher Viking Press description).

“It’s a beautiful story, and it’s a lie,” Jon Krakauer told CBS’ Steve Kroft.

Krakauer, an author and adventurer, originally backed the nonprofit Central Asia Institute with $75,000 of his own money before withdrawing his support.

From Viking Press
In regards to the 60 Minutes episode that aired April 17, 2011: “Greg Mortenson’s work as a humanitarian in Afghanistan and Pakistan has provided tens of thousands of children with an education. 60 Minutes is a serious news organization and in the wake of their report, Viking plans to carefully review the materials with the author.”

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Mortenson has admitted to “some omissions and compressions” while largely defending his work. Up until the program had aired, and for the last 15 years, no one in the USA questioned him and no one listened closely to what Pakistanis themselves had to say: the unraveling of the Mortenson story has come as no surprise there.

A few facts about Gilgit-Baltistan: گلگت – بلتستان, formerly known as the Northern Areas (شمالی علاقہ جات, Shumālī Ilāqe Jāt):

  • Gilgit Baltistan is a self governed region in the north of Pakistan. It is governed through a representative Government and an independent judiciary. Gilgit Baltistan is home to one of the most diverse socio-cultural geography in the world. It has been called the Roof of the World, the Wonderland of Asia and the Jewel of Pakistan.
  • The region of Gilgit-Baltistan which Mortenson describes as a wild area of extremist and violent terrorism actually is a peaceful, predominantly Ismaili region whose inhabitants see the Paris-based Aga Khan as their spiritual leader. There is a strong Tibetan Buddhist influence. The Aga Khan Development Network has been building schools in the region.  Pakistani journalist Rina Saeed Khan points out Gilgit-Baltistan has one of the highest literacy rates in Pakistan.


Archives, Bibliography, News & Current Events, Primary Sources, Reference, Uncategorized, Yemen

Yemen 2011 Stability Survey

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Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

In April 2011, FPRI posted the most extensive survey done to date of Yemen’s population. Conducted by Glevum Associates, a firm run by FPRI Senior Fellow Andrew Garfield, the survey indicated a disquieting level of support for Al Qaeda among Yemen’s populous as well as a profound resistance to US intervention in the country.

In response to the enormous interest in the survey, and rising tensions in the country, FPRI brought together a group of experts to discuss the survey as well as recent developments, including the reported shift in US policy toward a public role in easing Yemen’s President out of office despite his cooperation in fighting Al Qaeda.

Audio

Of Related interest

About the Panelists

Andrew Garfield is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Reseearch Institute and founder of Glevum Associates, which conducts extensive face-to-face social science research in several countries on behalf of the Department of Defense and other clients. He is former European Director of the Terrorism Research Center, Deputy Director of International Policy Institute (IPI) at King’s College London, and Senior Director of Influence and Insight for the Lincoln Group. Mr. Garfield is also a former senior British military then civilian intelligence officer and former senior policy advisor at the UK Ministry of Defense. While serving in the UK Defense Intelligence Staff he led two major studies that reviewed key aspects of that organization’s approach to post-Cold War intelligence analysis and recommended radical changes to policy and organization that were subsequently implemented in full. After moving into academia with King’s College London, he devised and successfully led three major projects for the U.S. Department of Defense focusing on the terrorist threat; likely adversary asymmetric warfare strategies; and the development of U.S. strategic influence operations and cultural intelligence.

Christopher Swift is an attorney and political scientist specializing in international law and contemporary armed conflict. A fellow at the University of Virginia Law School’s Center for International Security Law, he has travelled to Afghanistan, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union to examine al-Qaeda’s relationships with indigenous Muslim insurgencies. Dr. Swift’s legal practice focuses on complex international disputes, compliance with U.S. foreign trade and investment laws, and various aspects of public and private international law. Prior to joining the University of Virginia, he served in the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), where he enforced economic sanctions programs targeting terrorist syndicates, weapons proliferators, and other specially designated entities. Between 2006 and 2007, he served an international law fellow at the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, where he examined armed conflict and sectarian violence in Iraq. He was previously affiliated with organizations including Freedom House, where he worked on Russian affairs, and the Center for Strategic & International Studies, where he served as an aide to former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. A term member of the Council on Foreign Relations,

Dr. Swift is the author of The Fighting Vanguard: Local Insurgencies in the Global Jihad, which addresses the deficiencies in, and the growing need to, distinguish between different strains of Islamic militancy. He holds an A.B. in Government and History from Dartmouth College, a M.St. in International Relations of the University of Cambridge, and a J.D. from Georgetown University. He successfully defended his Ph.D. thesis in Politics & International Studies at the University of Cambridge in October 2010.

Curtis Cobb is a sociologist who does research on attitude formation, change, and effects, on the psychology of political behavior, and on survey research methods. He is a research scientist at Glevum Associates, LLC. Cobb received his B.A. degree in psychology from the University of Southern California, an M.A. from Columbia University, and his PhD in sociology from Stanford University. Prior to graduate school, he was a policy and budget consultant to the California State Senate. He has lectured on survey methodology at universities and for corporations and has served as a survey consultant to such organizations as the National Science Foundation, American Bar Foundation, and Stanford University. He has collaborated on surveys with the Associated Press, Yahoo News, and the Los Angeles Times.

Archives, Libya, News & Current Events, Reference

“Operation Odyssey Dawn.” What’s in a Name?

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Why are Military Actions in Libya Called “Operation Odyssey Dawn”?

“Operation Odyssey Dawn” began Saturday (March 19th) in Libya, when French warplanes opened fire on four pro-Gaddafi tanks headed to Benghazi.

An international coalition agreed to initiate airstrikes following the UN Security Council resolution on Libya (see last post). which authorized “all necessary measures” short of a ground invasion to defend civilians from attacks by units loyal to Libyan leader.

Phase One started the same day with the involvement of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada.

U.S. military’s nickname for the no-fly zone in Libya is “Operation Odyssey Dawn.”

According to the Washington Post “The Pentagon permits military commanders to assign two-word nicknames to military exercises or operations using instructions laid out in a carefully crafted Defense Department naming policy. The instructions assign each military command a certain set of words that must be used to select the name’s first word. AFRICOM is assigned to use pairings of words that start with JS to JZ, NS to NZ and OA to OS … A recent headquarters exercise was called Judicious Response, and another recent operation used the NS to NZ range, leaving OA to OS as the only option …

So how did commanders select “Odyssey Dawn”?

A group of lieutenant colonels and majors met several weeks ago in the early planning stages of the operation and agreed that Odyssey was the only usable word in the OA to OS range. Then, “they sat around and brainstormed for a random word that went well with it.””

Here’s what countries enforcing the resolution name “Operation Odyssey Dawn” 

*Canada: Operation Mobile

*France: Opération Harmattan

*United Kingdom: Operation Ellamy

*United States,  Italy,  Denmark,  Norway: Operation Odyssey Dawn

*NATO: Operation Unified Protector (arms embargo)