Whereas the New York State minimum wage has been slowly but steadily ticking up since at least 2013, the most recent increase to the federal minimum wage occurred 15 years ago, in July 2009. Prior to 1968, the federal wage floor in the United States tracked reasonably well with economic productivity — meaning that as society produced more goods and services, adjustments to minimum wage ensured that workers earning that baseline level of income were able to purchase more goods and services over time. Since 1968, the relationship between productivity and minimum wage has not just been severed — it’s been inverting.

As illustrated below, the real (inflation-adjusted) federal minimum wage in the U.S. has been steadily dropping in value for decades, while productivity has continued its upward march. If the pre-1968 connection between productivity and minimum wage kept its historical pace during this time, the federal floor for hourly earnings today would be nearly $26 — about three-and-a-half times the current value of $7.25. The gap between the current value of the federal minimum wage and the value it would take on if it had remained coupled to productivity has never been greater than it is right now.