Books

Presidents possess broad power to effect sweeping change with the stroke of a pen, leading many to decry the rise of an imperial presidency. But given the steep barriers that usually prevent Congress and the courts from formally checking unilateral power, what stops presidents from going it alone even more aggressively?  The Myth of the Imperial Presidency reveals the extent to which domestic public opinion limits executive might. Although few Americans instinctively recoil against unilateralism, Congress and the courts can sway the public’s view via their criticism of unilateral policies.  Anticipating this, presidents respond accordingly.  Presidents are emboldened to pursue their own agendas when they enjoy strong public support, and constrained when they are down in the polls.  Checks and balances remain resilient; but other actors check the unilateral executive primarily through political means.

 

Congressional investigations, which have produced some of the most dramatic moments in American political history, are far more than mere grandstanding. Investigating the President shows that investigations are a powerful tool for members of Congress to counter presidential aggrandizement. Marshaling an original data set of nearly 13,000 days of investigative hearings from 1898 through 2014, we examine the forces driving the exercise of investigative power over time; identify how hearings influence the president’s strategic calculations by eroding public support for the administration; and uncover the pathways through which investigations shape policy. By shining a light on alleged executive wrongdoing, investigations can exert significant pressure on the president and materially affect policy outcomes.

 

The Particularistic President challenges the notion that presidents are sole stewards of the national interest and provide an important counterbalance to the parochial impulses of members of Congress. Through an examination of a diverse range of policies from disaster declarations, to base closings, to the allocation of federal spending, we show that presidents, like members of Congress, are particularistic. Presidents routinely pursue policies that allocate federal resources in a way that disproportionately benefits their more narrow partisan and electoral constituencies. Concentrating greater power in the executive branch will not necessarily produce better policy outcomes; rather, executive branch politics generate their own form of political inequality.

 

 

After the Rubicon challenges the conventional wisdom of congressional irrelevance in military affairs by illuminating the diverse ways in which legislators have influenced the conduct of military affairs from the end of Reconstruction to the present day. Even in politically sensitive wartime environments, individual members of Congress frequently propose legislation, hold investigative hearings, and engage in national policy debates in the public sphere. These actions influence the president’s strategic decisions as he weighs the political costs of pursuing his preferred military course.  Marshaling a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence, the book reveals the full extent to which Congress materially shapes the initiation, scope, and duration of major military actions.

 

 

The Casualty Gap shows how the most important cost of American military campaigns – the loss of human life – has been paid disproportionately by poorer and less-educated communities since the 1950s. Drawing on a rich array of evidence, including National Archives data on the hometowns of more than 400,000 American soldiers killed in World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq, this book is the most ambitious inquiry to date into the distribution of American wartime casualties across the nation, the forces causing such inequalities to emerge, and their consequences for politics and democratic governance.

 

 

 

Peer-Reviewed Articles

The Potential Impact of Emerging Technologies on Democratic Representation: Evidence from a Field Experiment. (with S. Kreps). Forthcoming. New Media and Society. Supplemental Information  Replication Data

Resistance to COVID-19 Vaccination and the Social Contract: Evidence from Italy. (with S. Kreps). Forthcoming. npj Vaccines. Supplemental Information  Replication Data

Persistent Drop in Confidence Following US Recommended Pause of Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine. (with B. Rader, M. Chiang, R. Weintraub, and J. Brownstein). 2023. Vaccine 41: 5-9.

Citizens to Soldiers: Mobilization, Cost Perceptions, and Support for Military Action. (with J. Blankshain and L. Cohn). 2022. Journal of Global Security Studies 7(4).  Supplemental Information  Replication Data

How do COVID-19 vaccine mandates affect attitudes toward the vaccine and participation in mandate-affected activities? Evidence from the United States. (with S. Kreps). 2022. Vaccine 40: 7460-7465. Supplemental Information  Replication Data

COVID-19 Booster Uptake among US Adults: Assessing the Impact of Vaccine Attributes, Incentives, and Context in a Choice-Based Experiment. (with S. Raman, N. Ziebarth, K. Simon and S. Kreps). 2022. Social Science and Medicine. 310:115277. Supplemental Information   Replication Data

Communication about Vaccine Efficacy and COVID-19 Vaccine Choice: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in the United States. (with S. Kreps). 2022. PLOS One. 17(3): e0265011. Replication Data

The COVID-19 Infodemic and the Efficacy of Interventions Intended to Reduce Misinformation. (with S. Kreps). 2022. Public Opinion Quarterly. Supplemental Information   Replication Data

Beyond the First Dose – Covid-19 Vaccine Follow-through and Continued Protective Measures. (with J. Goldfarb, S. Kreps, and J. Brownstein). 2021. New England Journal of Medicine. 385: 101-103. Supplemental Information  Replication Data

Factors Influencing Covid-19 Vaccine Acceptance across Subgroups in the United States: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment. (with S. Kreps). 2021. Vaccine 39: 3250-3258.  Supplemental Information  Replication Data

The Relationship between US Adults’ Misconceptions about COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination Preferences. (with S. Kreps, J. Goldfarb., J. Brownstein). 2021. Vaccines. 9: 901. Replication Data

Public Attitudes toward COVID-19 Vaccination: The Role of Vaccine Attributes, Incentives, and Misinformation. (with S. Kreps, N. Dasgupta, J. Brownstein, Y. Hswen). 2021. npj Vaccines 6: 1-7. Replication Data

U.S. Public Support for Biofuels Tax Credits: Cost Frames, Local Fuel Prices, and the Moderating Influence of Partisanship. (with J. Goldfarb). 2021. Energy Policy 149:112098. Supplemental Information  Replication Data

Going Public in an Era of Social Media: Tweets, Corrections, and Public Opinion. (with D. Christenson and S. Kreps). 2021. Presidential Studies Quarterly. 51:151-165. Supplemental Information   Replication Data

Factors Associated with US Adults’ Likelihood of Accepting COVID-19 Vaccination. (with S. Kreps, S. Prassad, J. Brownstein, Y. Hswen, B. Garibaldi, and B. Zhang). 2020. JAMA Network Open 3(10):e2025594. Replication Data

Model Uncertainty, Political Contestation, and Public Trust in Science: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic.  (with S. Kreps). 2020. Science Advances 25 Sep 2020:eabd4563. Replication Data

Beyond the Base: Presidents, Partisan Approval, and the Political Economy of Unilateral Action. (with D. Christenson). 2020. Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy. 1: 79-103.

Battlefield Casualties and Ballot Box Defeat? Did the Bush-Obama Wars Cost Clinton the White House? (with F.X. Shen). 2020. PS: Political Science and Politics. 53: 248-252. Replication Data

Does Public Opinion Constrain Presidential Unilateralism? (with D. Christenson). 2019. American Political Science Review. 113: 1071-1077. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Public Knowledge, Contaminant Concerns, and Support for Recycled Water in the United States. (with D. Glick, J. Goldfarb, and W. Heiger-Bernays). 2019. Resources, Conservation, & Recycling. 150: 104419.

Congress, Public Opinion, and an Informal Constraint on the Commander-in-Chief. 2018. British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 20: 52-68.

Self-Interest, Partisanship, and the Conditional Influence of War Taxation on Support for War in the United States (with B. Lechase and R. Cappella Zielinski). 2018. Conflict Management and Peace Science. 35: 43-64.  Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Mobilizing the Public Against the President: Congress and the Political Costs of Unilateral Action (with D. Christenson). 2017. American Journal of Political Science. 61: 769-785. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Constitutional Qualms or Politics as Usual? The Factors Shaping Public Support for Unilateral Action (with D. Christenson). 2017. American Journal of Political Science. 61: 335-349. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

All the President’s Senators: Presidential Co-Partisans and the Allocation of Federal Grants (with D. Christenson). 2017. Legislative Studies Quarterly. 42: 269-294. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

The Specter of Supreme Court Criticism: Public Opinion and Unilateral Action (with D. Christenson). 2017. Presidential Studies Quarterly 47: 471-494.

Costs, Benefits, and the Malleability of Public Support for Fracking (with D. Christenson and J. Goldfarb). 2017. Energy Policy. 105: 407-417.  Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Building Public Support for Science Spending: Misinformation, Motivated Reasoning, and the Power of Corrections (with J. Goldfarb). 2017. Science Communication. 39: 77-100. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Geographic Proximity to Coal Plants and U.S. Public Support for Extending the Production Tax Credit (with J. Goldfarb and M. Buessing). 2016. Energy Policy. 99: 299-307.  Replication Data

The Elasticity of Reality and British Support for the War in Afghanistan (with G.K. Wilson). 2016. British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 18: 559-580. Supplemental Information

Conscription, Inequality, and Partisan Support for War (with F.X. Shen). 2016. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 60: 1419-1445. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Presidential Particularism and Divide-the-Dollar Politics (with A. Reeves). 2015. American Political Science Review. 109: 155-171. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq (with F.X. Shen). 2014. American Journal of Political Science. 58: 157-174. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Investigating the President: Committee Probes and Presidential Approval, 1953-2006 (with E. Schickler). 2014. Journal of Politics. 76: 521-534.  Supplemental Information   Replication Data

Reassessing American Casualty Sensitivity: The Mediating Influence of Inequality (with F.X. Shen). 2014. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 58: 1174-1201. Supplemental Information    Replication Data

Obama’s Authorization Paradox: Syria and Congress’ Continued Relevance in Military Affairs. 2014. Presidential Studies Quarterly. 44: 309-327.

Responsive Partisanship: Public Support for the Clinton and Obama Health Care Plans (with A. Reeves). 2014. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. 39: 717-749.

The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections (with A. Reeves). 2012. American Political Science Review. 106: 348-66.  Supplemental Information    Replication Data

How Citizens Respond to Combat Casualties: The Differential Impact of Local Casualties on Support for the War in Afghanistan (with F.X. Shen). 2012. Public Opinion Quarterly. 76: 761-770.  Supplemental Information

Limited War and American Political Engagement (with F.X. Shen). 2009. Journal of Politics. 71: 1514-1529.  Supplemental Information

Partisan Dynamics and the Volatility of Presidential Approval (with L. Schwartz). 2009. British Journal of Political Science. 39: 609-631.

Divided Government and Congressional Investigations (with L. Schwartz). 2008. Legislative Studies Quarterly. 33: 295-321.

Dynamics of Vice Presidential Selection (with M. Hiller). 2008. Presidential Studies Quarterly. 38: 401-421.

Iraq Casualties and the 2006 Senate Elections (with F.X. Shen). 2007. Legislative Studies Quarterly. 32: 507-530.

World War II and the Variance of Presidential Approval. 2006. Public Opinion Quarterly. 70: 23-47.