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Republican Majority at Risk: U.S. Supreme Court Sustains Challenges to Louisiana’s 2020 Congressional Maps

Photo: The U.S. Supreme Court, taken by Gallup News.

WASHINGTON D.C. – In a major blow to Republicans’ already slim majority, the United States Supreme Court has ruled that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit must hear legal challenges against Louisiana’s congressional district map. This crucial decision comes just a few weeks after Alabama’s district map suffered a similar fate in Allen v. Milligan. With less than a year until the general election primaries, the Supreme Court has displayed a willingness to overturn gerrymandered maps in favor of those which include majority-minority districts, increasing descriptive representation across the southern United States.

While the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has a conservative history, many Democrats and voting rights activists have proclaimed this ruling as a victory for Louisianans. The Supreme Court’s decision to send legal challenges against Louisiana’s maps back to the lower court provides an opportunity for a political shake-up in the state. That is, an additional majority-minority district gives Democrats an opportunity to flip a their congressional delegation. When combined with Alabama’s court-ordered redistricting, the serious political implications are becoming increasingly clear in Washington.

Overview of Gerrymandering and Louisiana’s 2020 Congressional Maps 

Photo: LA Congressional Maps, The Washington Post.

Since the ratification of the U.S. Constitution, states could create their electoral procedures, including the number of chambers in their legislature, congressional district boundaries, and voter eligibility requirements. For most of the 19th and early-20th centuries, state legislatures drew their congressional districts with very little oversight. Only until the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 were strict standards actually put in place by the federal government to prevent legislatures from disempowering minorities at the voting booth. These standards include prohibiting discriminatory voting practices based on race or any voting practice that is shown to have discriminatory result—both of which were common in the United States after the Civil War. 

In addition, the Voting Rights Act specifies that majority-minority districts were legal to draw if they were intentionally created to provide political power for a cohesive, historically underrepresented racial community. Nonetheless, politicians would still use redistricting as a legal mechanism for gaining and maintaining political power. This practice is known as gerrymandering.  

Photo: Gerrymandering Visual, MIT Election Data.

There are two forms of gerrymandering: “cracking” and “packing.” Cracking occurs when states draw districts to split votes held by the opposing party, effectively diluting their opponent’s electoral strength. Conversely, placing the vast majority of an opponent’s votes into a single district is known as packing. Louisiana’s state legislature gerrymandered their maps to favor their Republican congressional delegation. More specifically, they packed as many democrats as possible into the state’s 2nd district, spanning from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. While roughly 30% of the state voted for Democrats during the 2022 midterms, the party only held 1 out of the 6 seats in the state’s congressional delegation (i.e., 20% of the available seats). 

Photo: LA Demographic Data, KKF.

The 2nd Congressional District also happens to be a majority-minority district, consisting of mostly black residents. These districts give historically underrepresented ethnic and racial communities the chance to elect members of Congress who they believe best represent their values and experiences. However, 30% of the state’s population is black, and only 15% of the state’s congressional delegation represents a majority-black district. While creating majority-black districts is legal to increase descriptive representation, per the Voting Rights Act of 1965, it is illegal when intended to dilute a racial group’s political strength. This issue of illegal racial gerrymandering, when combined with Democratic underrepresentation, is the basis of several legal challenges brought to the Supreme Court against the state of Louisiana’s congressional district maps. 

Supreme Court’s Legal Argument 

The Supreme Court ruling originated from a prior lawsuit known as Ardoin v. Robinson. In this case, a group of civil rights organizations argued that Louisiana’s maps violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and filed a lawsuit against the Louisiana Secretary of State in District Court. The case was first heard by U.S. Judge Shelly Dick, who ruled in favor of the plaintiffs on June 6th, 2022. The judge ruled Louisiana violated the Voting Rights Act, and called on the state’s legislature to redraw their congressional maps. Louisiana’s Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin appealed this decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which refused to pause the District Court’s ruling. The Supreme Court subsequently took up case earlier last year.

The Supreme Court put a hold on the District Court’s redistricting mandate until the justices reached a decision on Alabama’s congressional maps in mid-June, given their legal similarities. The temporary hold sustained the unfair maps through the 2022 midterm elections. The Justices eventually ruled that Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act by only having one majority-black district (out of seven seats) despite the state being 25% black. A week after overturning Alabama’s maps, on June 26th, 2023, the Justices released their Louisiana Decision. The Justices ultimately asserted that the case was “improvidently granted,” meaning it will not be heard by the Supreme Court. This dismissal was a surprise due to the conservative makeup of the Supreme Court bench. 

As a result, Louisiana’s Attorney General and the plaintiffs must now make their arguments in front of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals “for review in the ordinary course and in advance of the 2024 congressional elections in Louisiana.” The plaintiff’s attorney expects a ruling in their favor because “Black voters in Louisiana have suffered one election under a congressional map that unlawfully dilutes their political influence.” Given the precedent set by the Supreme Court’s Alabama decision, the ruling in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit will be unpredictable.

What are the Implications of the Louisiana Ruling?

Photo: Republican Leadership, Speaker.gov.

The Louisiana congressional map dispute is not only about representation and voting rights, but also about political control. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Party hope to maintain their slim, 222-212 seat majority in the House of Representatives. As the 2024 general election quickly approaches, the Louisiana district maps could determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber. If Democrats can win five additional seats, which is not impossible during a president’s second term, they will gain significant influence over the policy-making process as the majority party.

Voting rights activists and southern Republicans are both confident about their chances in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit. State Attorney General Jeff Landry (R-LA) claims that “our job is to defend what the [Louisiana] legislature passed, and we trust the 5th Circuit will review the merits in accordance with the law.” On the other hand, Attorney Abha Kann claims, “We feel very confident about our likelihood of success.” 

Photo: U.S House Balance of Power, Bloomberg

In addition to the high political stakes, this decision will also have a significant effect on voting rights in Louisiana. Should the lower court rule in favor of the plaintiffs, similar to the Supreme Court’s decision regarding Alabama’s maps, black communities will likely receive increased representation in the House of Representatives. An additional black-majority district will allow a black political candidate to win a redrawn seat more feasibly. 

Ultimately, equal representation is critical to a functioning democracy. Per the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Race and ethnicity should never determine the extent of one’s political rights or power. Louisiana’s congressional maps will face their final test in the  U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which has the potential to reshape our political landscape moving forward.