Primaries in US Elections and Information Cascades
Despite representing a mere 1.37% of the total U.S. population, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire hold substantial weight in nominating presidential candidates. The reason for this phenomenon is due to the states’ early placement in the primary schedule and the effect such early victories have on voters in the remaining states. Every four years, an election is held to identify the presidential candidates for each political party. To allow candidates an opportunity to campaign in each state, primaries are held over an extended period of time, rather than simultaneously. Beginning in early February and concluding in mid-June, each state holds its primary on a designated date. The first two primaries are held in Iowa and New Hampshire. Such primaries often garner substantial media coverage, with a recent report noting that the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries account for roughly half of the total coverage of the primary elections.
In lecture, we analyzed a model in which individuals sequentially acquired a private signal. Upon this acquisition, the individual publicized his or her choice. For the first individual, determining said choice was determined strictly by one’s own private signal. For latter individuals, however, determining one’s choice required consideration of one’s own private signal, as well as the implications of the previous publicized choices. In consequence of such decision-making, information cascades become very likely, in which decisions are reached on the basis of the first few participants’ decisions. In other words, as soon as one’s personal knowledge cannot overcome public knowledge, people begin to make decisions strictly determined by others.
Corresponding to the model developed in lecture, each state represents an “individual,” the victor of each state’s primary represents a public signal, and Iowa and New Hampshire represent the first two individuals in the process. More specifically, the outcome of the first two states influences voters in the remaining states. In fact, a recent study in The Journal of Political Economy suggests that voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have up to five times more influence on the outcome of the presidential primaries than voters in latter states. This finding is staggering. Despite representing a minute fraction of citizens, voters in early states hold significant weight in selecting political candidates. Because of this influence, presidential candidates have spent considerable time campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, developing personal connections with individual voters. Due to the benefits of holding early primaries, many states have attempted to reschedule their primary to earlier in the primary calendar, albeit unsuccessfully. In contrast to the model developed in lecture, however, this “cascade” can be broken. On numerous occasions, candidates have overcome deficits in the early primaries. Nevertheless, there is no denying the importance of the outcomes of the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
Reference:
Mellman, M. (2012). “Iowa and New Hampshire: It’s win one or go home.” Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-xpm-2012-jan-05-la-oe-mellman-iowa-and-new-hampshire-still-matter-20120105-story.html
Baum, D. (2011). “Voters have up to five times more influence in early primaries.” Brown University. Retrieved from: https://news.brown.edu/articles/2011/06/primaries