Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Selfies
On November 8, Eric Trump posted a picture of his ballot for the 2016 election to Twitter. Unsurprisingly, the photo showed that Eric voted for his father, Donald. While Donald Trump’s victory dominated media coverage in the subsequent days, Eric Trump’s photo also caused quite a stir.
The Trump family resides in New York State, where sharing a photo of an election ballot can result in significant fines or jail time. While many states like New York have policies that make it illegal to share ballot photos on social media, other states consider it a fundamental right. Simply put, the issue is frequently contested in the media because many people consider posting a ballot photo as an expression of free speech; however, principles we have learned about networks also explain why many states have made doing so illegal.
The principle of self-fulfilling expectations stipulates that when people harbor one set of expectations, the world turns out in a certain way that makes these expectations come true. To explain this in the context of ballot photos, it is best to consider an example. Imagine that Abe and Betty are friends on Facebook, and Betty sees that Abe has posted a photo declaring that he is voting for candidate A. If Betty sees similar photos from her friends showing that many people have voted for candidate A, she will develop expectations that candidate A is going to win. Thus, even if Betty favors candidate B, she may vote for candidate A so she can be part of the winning team. Additionally, it is possible that Betty will not vote at all because she believes that candidate B has no chance of beating candidate A. Each of these benefit the chance that candidate A wins, and thereby create self-fulfilling expectations.
Laws that prohibit people from posting ballot photos attempt to make the decision to vote for a specific candidate exogenously desirable as opposed to endogenously desirable. In other words, the candidates should be evaluated independently on inherent merit instead of the decisions that other voters are making. These laws help limit expectations for individuals that are based on what other voters are doing and prevent self-fulfilling expectations from developing in the first place.
While it is unclear whether these benefits outweigh the harms to free speech, the topic contributes to an excellent debate.
Sources Consulted
Addady, Michal. “Eric Trump Just Violated This New York Voting Law.” Fortune, Nov. 8, 2016. http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/eric-trump-twitter-ballot/
Dewey, Caitlin. “Election Day PSA: It’s illegal to share photos of your ballot online in many states. Here’s why.” Washington Post, Nov. 4, 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/11/04/election-day-psa-its-illegal-to-share-photos-of-your-ballot-online-in-many-states-heres-why/
Rogers, Katie. “Are Selfies With Your Ballot Legal? Depends on Where You Vote.” New York Times, Nov. 8, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/us/politics/ballot-selfies.html