Board Games to Virtual Reality: The Mind’s Simulation
It is rare to see an individual in real-time calculate the expected payout or consequence of quotidian decisions. Still, game theory reduces any number of complex scenarios to probabilistic models of reality, calculating and simulating realistic decisions to best suit a player’s objective or maximize their utility. As the systems and decisions modeled become more complex, they become more realistic, but these complex statistical models are not without their limitations. Imagine a world in which every interaction had been previously mathematically modeled. Mathematicians, Economists, Political Scientists, and Psychologists continually seek to predict and contain what seems incalculable. Infinite probabilities and factors that diverge in any given instance of time could shatter any statistical model over time. Also, as evidenced by Braess’s paradox, these models become less and less intuitive. When modeling human behavior and strategy beyond just simple games and auctions, it is no longer a question of optimality or Nash Equilibrium. Sociological and cultural factors impede optimal cooperation always. Instead, it is simply a matter of accurately predicting the suboptimal results of innumerable small games that in concert act to drive the much larger game model.
Game theory, as a continuous mathematical model for human behavior, is intrinsic to the advancement and complexity of game design. In many ways, games themselves are isolated, small-scale models of reality, enabling players to immerse themselves in a mental simulation to strategize their moves accordingly. As the games become more complex, they become increasingly realistic, forcing players to consider less intuitive strategies and unforeseen factors. It is almost as if game design and game theory progress in congruence, and today we have reached levels of complexity in both that were unimaginable at some point in time. Still, the objectives of each differ greatly, as game theory aims to isolate what is significant from the extraneous and game design aims to deceive and incite emotional responses from the player. In an article published in April of this year for UX collective titled “Designing with Game Theory,” Clayton Notestine discusses the dichotomous existence of game theory and game design as the bridge between virtual reality and our own (UX Collective). He explains that though board games are the easiest to model, the only variable when examining video games is “the distance between players and the system they’re manipulating” (UX Collective). Distance can be measured or equated in this case by time. As such, the same can be said for complex game theory. The difference between what can and cannot be easily modeled, is the distance, or time, between the present and the event being modeled. Unless time travel is feasible and somehow has managed to stay hidden from me after all these years of calculations and quantum simulations, this distance is incredibly difficult to rectify.
Video games are a pastime, but they are becoming increasingly realistic. Game designers have become effective game theorists, generating models of reality that, although removed and abstract, are becoming increasingly believable. As we progress in the realm of virtual reality, the question of distinguishing realities seems to be a natural progression. How can we tell what is objective reality? The limitless scope of such questions makes pondering them rather futile. Still, without those that tirelessly commit themselves to the cause of seemingly futile exploration, we would never progress. Whether each individual decision shifts the entire progression of reality or greater cosmic forces seek to stabilize the incessant entropy of our decaying reality, attempting to predict and model scenarios too far removed from our present selves seems inconceivable.
Time breeds uncertainty, and simply predicting the future may change it. Still, economists, scientists, and philosophers will keep trying. There is no reason not to. There is a high probability that at some point in time one astrophysicist or economist or philosopher will find the missing link to rectify the limitless uncertainty of the universe. The key lies in continual improvement. Elon musk laid this out very clearly in a podcast when he explained that “If you assume any rate of improvement at all, games will eventually be indistinguishable from reality” (MACH, 2018). Furthermore, as our games become more and more indistinguishable from quotidian life, the converse is also true. Game Theory modeling will ultimately determine whether or not our reality is in fact a simulated one. At the same time, however, it seems to me that if we are ever able to accurately model the future, our reality will be no different than a simulation.
Sources:
https://uxdesign.cc/game-theory-board-games-7dd06e0ba28e