Game Theory: Pablo Escobar vs. the Colombian Government
An interesting real world example of game theory is that of Pablo Escobar’s attack on the Colombian Palace of Justice. Escobar was the leader of the world’s largest drug cartel: the Medellin Cartel. He is infamous for being one of the most cruel and destructive drug lords of all time, and at one point he was among the richest people on the planet.
The context for the aforementioned attack on the palace of justice was as follows. The Colombian government, growing tired of their waning power in comparison to the cartels, and with the growing violence, began to cooperate with the DEA. Under this cooperation, there were active efforts being made to capture Escobar and dismantle other leaders within the Medellin cartel. Additionally, the main caveat was that an extradition treaty was to be signed with the US, so that drug lords in the country could be extradited and prosecuted under the American law. This effort was being lead by the DEA, the Colombian government and by the Supreme Court of Colombia.
Escobar grew greatly threatened by the extradition, which would mean he would stay in jail and have to leave his country if caught again. While this interaction was complex and had many moving parts, it can essentially be modelled as a Hawk-Dove game.
| D | H | |
| D | 5,5 | 0,10 |
| H | 10,0 | -5,-5 |
The Colombian government began with playing the Hawk strategy against Escobar, by introducing extradition into the equation. Pablo, known for his rash and emotional reactions, played the Hawk strategy in retaliation by having a brute display of power, taking over the supreme court. This was the worst outcome of the game since both sides were damaged, as the Hawk-Dove game predicts. Pablo lost repute with the people that resided in Medellin, and the government faced a massive disruption to their power.
While this outcome is not what game theory would predict, it shows that the players of the game were not rational. This is indeed a fact in the case of Escobar who was known for being irrational to the point.
Relavant Link: https://www.businessinsider.com/colombia-palace-of-justice-siege-2016-11