Skip to main content



Bayes’ Theorem- Blog Post #3

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-19/bayes-theorem-probability-luck-explained/10243134

This article in ABC Science, “The Mathematical Formula You Use Every Day Without Realizing it: Bayes’ Theorem,” explores how we all use Bayes’ theorem in our everyday lives and we don’t even notice. The author starts out by explaining the concept of conditional probability, or probability “relying on prior knowledge.” The author first compares the thinking behind Bayes’ Theorem to losing your car keys. He explains that when you realize that your car keys are missing, “you use your prior knowledge of places where else you have left your keys at home before to inform your ongoing search.” The search for your keys was rooted in the same logic as Bayesian probability, “a combination of prior knowledge and relevant current information.”

This article provides some real-world application to the concept we are learning in this class, Bayes’ Theorem. Believe it or not, this seemingly complicated mathematical theorem is used not only in just our thinking, but also in technology. One application of Bayesian Probability is in spam filters. Many email platforms use Bayes’ Theorem to detect spam in users’ inboxes by calculating the probability that an email is spam given it contains a certain word. Then, based on this probability, there is a threshold value for which an email is rejected. Additionally, Bayes’ Theorem was used throughout history, to “crack the ‘unbreakable’ Enigma code” in World War II. Overall, this article sheds light on applications of a Bayes’ Theorem, an important mathematical lemma we are studying in this course.

Comments

Leave a Reply

Blogging Calendar

November 2018
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

Archives