Global Risk of Madagascar’s Pneumonic Plague Epidemic is Limited
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171130093814.htm
This article is about the recent uprising in pneumonic plague in Madagascar. Currently, mathematical models project the diseases reproductive number to be around 1.73. The study says that the probability of worldwide spread is very low, around 0.1 person per the 78 day period they evaluated. This disease is dangerous, however, because of its high fatality rate and the time offset between onset and reporting of cases. The only way someone can be infected is through airborne droplets or direct contact with a diseased one’s blood.
This study relates well to our study on epidemics. Firstly, they report a reproductive number of 1.73, and though this is small, it is still above 1 which means that the disease will persist unless additional measures are taken. Given the fact that the disease has broken out in Madagascar and that is has a low probability of spreading outside of Madagascar right now, a positive suggestion would be to increase sanitary measures, decreasing airborne particulates and contact with diseased fluids. Also, by recognizing and treating the disease early on with antibiotics the effects and spread of the disease can be lessened.