Game Theory in Nuclear Standoff
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-win-a-nuclear-standoff/
In this article, titled “How to Win a Nuclear Standoff,” the author overviews how game theory is playing a role in the current crisis between US and North Korea. This has been one of the most worrisome current events taking place in the past few months, and the article ponders if game theory can predict the players’ behavior and results. Both countries are currently ruled by unpredictable leaders, though North Korea has more to gain and less to lose than US according to the writer. In most cases, a superpower like the United States would have a major foot up due to the fact that we are a superpower and have more war resources, but in this case, since nuclear weapons are involved, even a small country like North Korea can be on equal footing with US, since both now have nuclear weapons that can destroy huge parts of each others’ lands.
What I found interesting about this article is how this complicated real-world scenario doesn’t quite abide by the norms of player behavior in game theory, since both players have a lot to lose and it is hard to predict how much risk each player will take, since there is not much data on nuclear warfare currently. A very unique thing that is also happening is a series of empty threats, particularly by our American President Donald Trump, in that the US is not keeping up with the consequences we say we will take. Since North Korea is ruled by a dictator and would gain a lot from exerting its power, Kim Jung Un is the player who is more likely to take a risk. US, as a leader of the free world, while Trump has displayed that he is more vary to actually take a risk.It is scary to think that sometimes, the “dominant strategy” may often be the most dangerous option, as the author writes. This example goes to show me that game theory, especially in more complex scenarios like this, can be hard to exact. Players can be hard to predict with their blank threats and tendency to take action, and data can be difficult to find in scenarios such as this nuclear crisis. But game theory is definitely useful to keep in mind when thinking of the future of this current instability in the world.