Using Game Theory to Analyze Operations Against Time-Critical Targets
One of the major topics discussed in this course to date is game theory. As we have seen thus far, especially from the wide array of blog posts, game theory is an extremely useful strategic tool and can be applied to many different fields.
The article cited discusses the utilization of game theory in military operations and strategy. More specifically, it details the application of game theory in military strategy when analyzing time-critical targets. A time-critical target operation can “include suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD), interdiction of moving forces, and attacks against theater ballistic missiles (TBMs).” In short, they are extremely small windows in which an important military operation can take place. The goal of a time-critical target operation is to physically destroy an enemy’s resource or “convincing an enemy not to fire surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), not to move his forces, or not to launch TBMs is often a satisfactory short-term alternative.”
Game theory is especially useful and applicable in this scenario of time-critical targets for many reasons. First, a potential time-critical target can be simply be looked at as a game. The two enemies are the players and all of their potential military operations are the strategies. Based on what each player decides, each of the enemies will have some sort of result, or payoff. Second, strategists dive much deeper into the payoff matrix than previously mentioned. The first step is to determine and publish all possible actions of each side. Once all of the potential strategies are recorded for each player they use a system of assigning numerical value to each of the potential strategies, exactly as our simpler problems do. Following this the same numerical value generation is done for all potential payoffs and then an in-depth analysis is done in order to determine the possible gains and losses for both players. The strategists then do their best to assign the best outcome from the exchange. This obviously is a huge challenge especially because “intelligent opponents vary their tactics in order to appear unpredictable to the enemy.”
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB108/index1.html