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North Korea Tit for Tat

Over the past few months, international tensions have flared as North Korea, a nation roughly the size of New York state, has vowed to advance its ballistic missile technology and nuclear capabilities. Labeled as a member of the “axis of evil” by former President George Bush in 2002 and shortly thereafter abandoning the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, North Korea have a lengthy history of refusing to cooperate with international sanctions concerning its aggressive nuclear buildup. Instead, the autocratic state headed by the Kim Family, continues to make active threats against its regional neighbors and the United States. These threats, nevertheless, remain exercises of bravado for now. Why has not North Korea dealt the sinister blow that it claims its enemies are deserving of? Why does the embattled nation continue to oppose a seemingly united coalition that remains against its intentions? As Elizabeth Winkler of the Washington Post suggests a simple analysis of North Korea’s actions with respect to game theory might prove fruitful.

A common characterization of international relations, mainly from the perspective of the United States, with North Korea is that of an analogy to the Cold War and arms race with Russia. In a showcase of the classical Prisoner’s Dilemma, both the United States and the Soviet Union chose to “retaliate”  and build armaments.

Cold War Prisoner’s Dilemma

However, Winkler argues that “North Korea doesn’t yet have a symmetric ability to retaliate against us as we do against them.” Such an insight is crucial to developing an understanding of the Kim Regime’s bombastic statements and ultimatums. North Korea does not view the United States as equal “game partners” in light of a hypothetical Prisoner’s Dilemma. Fearing the likelihood of sparking a humanitarian disaster, the United States have long sought to be cautious in its approach to dealing with North Korea despite possessing an overwhelming military advantage. North Korea unlike the ,Soviet Union, continues to build without forceful resistance and maximizes its perceived payoffs. Unless North Korea’s Regime fear any form of retaliation beyond a red line in the sand (tit for tat), they will continue their nuclear armament campaign and voicing outlandish statements.

 


References:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/16/what-game-theory-tells-us-about-nuclear-war-with-north-korea/?utm_term=.717eab0f4e44

Picture: http://www.baselpeaceoffice.org/sites/default/files/imce/articles/News/nuclear_prisoners_dillemma.pdf

 

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