Using the Branching Model in the recent Ebola Epidemic
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-ebola-forecast-20150113-story.html
The article is about the most recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, and how researchers are using the branching model to set goals and reduce rates of transmission. The main fear of Ebola stems from the fact that we don’t know anything about the virus, how it is transmitted, and its deadliness, resulting in an estimated 70% case mortality rate. At the writing of the article, Ebola had infected 21,171 people and killed 8,371.
Researchers had used the branching model to estimate and predict a variety of outcomes. They concluded that if only 70% of the infected received treatment, and hospital bed capacity stayed the same, then the virus would continue to be transmitted and remain at critical levels. However, if hospital officials managed to achieve and maintain an 85% treatment rate, then they predicted that the Ebola virus would be successfully contained.
This directly relates to the branching model discussed in chapter 21, and even directly relates to the example. Both situations are epidemics, and the branching model can be used to predict and model worst case scenarios as well as set guidelines and target values in the fight against disease.