Syrian Conflict through a Game Theory Lens
There are many ways the lessons which we have been presented so far can be applied to the ongoing Syrian conflict. In this blog, we will simplify the Syrian conflict to an example of Game Theory. As usual, the United States is at odds with Russia in a conflict over the territories of the sides that they support, similar to the Cold War. Russia supports the current Syrian government, while the US supports some of the many groups trying to overthrow the current government. Both the United States and Russia are capable of dumping immense amounts of troops in to support their side. Obviously, both countries would like their side of the Syrian conflict to come out on top, yet want to minimize primarily their respective casualties but also casualties as a whole.
War is complicated. The players, the United States and Russia, have many different ways they can go about supporting their sides and minimizing casualties, however, to make this a simple, easy to understand application of game theory, I will boil this down to two main options for the United States and Russia. Both countries have the option to either provide military support, or withdraw their support. I will assume the military support provided will be roughly equal. This makes it a game based off of coordination strategy. The socially optimal strategy is to have both countries withdraw, minimizing the death toll, however it effectively leaves things as they are in Syria, with no side coming out on top. If one player decides to deploy troops while the other doesn’t, then the player that decides troops will win the war, with close to minimal casualties. However, if one player decides to do that, the other player will most likely not stand for that, as they do not wish to lose the war, so the second player will then deploy troops as well, which will lead to the least optimal solution; the war will effectively come to a standstill with very many casualties.
On September 10th, the two players began to try for the best solution, and have negotiated a ceasefire. It will come into effect on September 12th, and if it lasts for a week, then further military negotiations will follow, and hopefully the conflict can come to a peaceful resolution.
Information on the Syrian conflict: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/world/middleeast/russian-intervention-in-syrian-war-has-sharply-reduced-us-options.html
Information on the recent ceasefire: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/09/09/russia-us-reach-cease-fire-deal-syria/90147222/