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A game-theory based agent-cellular model for use in urban growth simulation

In “A game-theory based agent-cellular model for use in urban growth simulation: A case study of the rapidly urbanizing Wuhan area of central China”, the authors presented a crucial issue in the 21st century. Urbanization is a process that large rural population migration into cities with rate of urban expansion. In order to analyze the reason and structure of this process, they couple game theory with an integrated agent-cellular method to model urban growth. In the CA model, they have presented a formula that the probability of a specific cell converted from non-urban land to urban land using P_ij = SA_i * N_i * p_r where SA_i is accessibility, N_i is the neighbor effect, and p_r is effect of random variable. But in term of the game-theory based agent model, there are three broad type of agents or in other word players: the landowner, land developer, and the government. Each of three players need to rise its strategies to earn its best profit or interest. However, the final decision of whether a land can be converted into urban land is depended on all three choice. And this game consists five fundamental elements: player, strategy, outcome, payoff, and solution.

Under the view of material we have learnt, the connection between this type of modeling and material we learnt, the common part is how player choose a strategy and how this strategy is going to effect on other player. If one put too much enforcement on one strategy to make most profit will lead their opponent to back off to find other strategy that may cause one earn nothing even lose. Meanwhile, if one make concession to another, he/she may took advantage on one, and cause one earn less. Therefore, it is important to find the situation that Nash Equilibrium occurs. In the paper, in order to have a land to be converted into urban land, it is important for developer to make concession to landowner in order to make agreement allow them to develop this area and to get permission from government. The only different is which one of those three is the leading factor for the urbanization, and different situation will yield different profit for each of three player. Meanwhile, missing agreement from any one of three player will fail the project. Thus it is the same as the game-theory problem presented in class, but with three player.

Tan, Ronghui, Yaolin Liu, Kehao Zhou, Limin Jiao, and Wei Tang. “A Game-theory Based Agent-cellular Model for Use in Urban Growth Simulation: A Case Study of the Rapidly Urbanizing Wuhan Area of Central China.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems (2014): 15-29. Print.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971514001057

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