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History of Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule was first discovered by Rev. Thomas Bayes’ during the 1740’s , but his work was never published when he was alive. It was not until a century later, mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace rediscovered it independently and published the modern formulation in 1812. The theorem was then widely used among the government officials. However, around 1890’s, people believed that “the new science could not allow for anything ‘subjective'”, and Bayes’s Rule was not taught in school or allowed to be in textbooks. Despite the decline of Bayes’ Rule, some scientists went on and modified the theorem to a newer formulation.

Bayes’ Rule has many applications in real life. During World War II, it was used by British Army to predict the possible locations of German U-boats. Although the code to determine the location was eventually destructed after the war since Churchill didn’t want the Soviets to know their secret. Bayes’ Rule is also widely used in medicine. A doctor estimated how likely patients are going to lung cancer based on given health information. Bayes’s Rule has many other applications and is considered one of the most important theorem in the study of possibility.

 

work cited: http://lesswrong.com/lw/774/a_history_of_bayes_theorem/

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