Superstitions in Baseball – An Interesting Application of Information Cascades
Links to relevant actricles:
http://seattletimes.com/html/sports/2002518793_artmoments25.html
http://www.academia.edu/1664314/_Don_t_Step_on_the_Foul_Line_Baseball_and_the_Ir-_rationality_of_Superstitious_Belief
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1563418-ranking-the-10-best-superstitions-in-baseball/page/8
There is a unique facet of information cascades that are present in the game of baseball today. A baseball player myself, I watch (and partake) in many of the “superstitions” that have been created and followed for many years. Examples include “not stepping on the foul line”, “not talking to a pitcher when he is throwing a no hitter”, and “the rally cap”. These superstitions can be considered an application of information cascades, because their fundamental nature is the same. Most trending superstitions in baseball are derived from a notable player doing something seemingly odd that he claims aids his athletic performance or his team. Then, after other preeminent players attempt this weird action or routine, the baseball community starts to flood with players who follow. This is very similar to the more basic information cascades that we have seen, except the amount of people needed to create a cascade in baseball is usually larger than just a couple of people. Nonetheless, the unique and sometimes comical aspect about this particular application is that these routines baseball players do are not intuitive at all, and someone looking in from the outside would wonder why the player is acting in a certain way.
This unique information cascade has some interesting similarities and differences from more general cascades that have been presented in class. First, it is similar in the sense that the cascade can be wrong. In my opinion, stepping on the foul line does not have any impact on your athletic performance that day. However, everyone and their mother knows not to step on the foul line. Second, there is another similarity because these cascades can be (and are for the most part) based on very little information. The fact that Derek Holland (Texas Rangers) drives to Wendy’s the night before he pitches and places a $30 order because he believes it makes the difference in his pitching performance is ridiculous. What’s even worse is the amount of players that followed, which then initiated the information cascade around MLB regarding unique pre game meals. Finally, one difference between trending superstitions and normal cascades is that trending superstitions in baseball are not very fragile. It would take either a convincing scientific paper, or a preeminent player in the game to change some of the information cascades that exist in baseball today.
Ultimately, players from Little League up to the MLB will continue to take actions based on what others have done in the past, and not on their own private information. These actions are not based on facts and may look counterintuitive at face value, but they are actually increasingly important in a game where confidence is vital. As the game of baseball continues to evolve over the next several decades, it will be interesting to watch the direct benefit information cascades that follow.