2014 NBA Draft Market
In this past NBA draft (2014), it was very clear to all teams involved that there were three draft picks that were head and shoulders better than everyone else available. Naturally, the teams with the first three draft picks were looking only at these three players as choices. However, it was anyone’s guess as far as what order they would go in. The teams were evaluating what positions they needed to fill and how quickly the picks could become effective in their system in order to place a value on each player. The draft could be modeled using market matching and about three weeks before the event, one plausible model would be:
| Teams | Players |
A |
B |
C |
| Cleveland | Jabari Parker (A) |
8 |
9 |
9 |
| Milwakee | Joel Embiid (B) |
9 |
9 |
8 |
| Philidelphia | Andrew Wiggins (C) |
7 |
10 |
7 |
The teams were picking in the order shown above, so it seemed that the order was still pretty undecided and decided entirely by Cleveland. However, a market changing event occurred a few weeks before the draft. Joel Embiid broke his foot and after surgery, it seemed that he would miss all of the upcoming season. He immediately lost all of immediate impact. He seemed to drop in value to each team. The resulting market had a look resembling:
| Teams | Players |
A |
B |
C |
| Cleveland | Jabari Parker (A) |
8 |
6 |
9 |
| Milwakee | Joel Embiid (B) |
9 |
6 |
8 |
| Philidelphia | Andrew Wiggins (C) |
7 |
7 |
7 |
While this chart was by no means what was definitely going through each team’s head, it is a rough estimate. The teams also followed a pattern that would have led to the same results as the above market. After Embiid sustained his injury, it could be seen as a market-clearing price (0 3 0) that left each team with their highest value. Cleveland took Wiggins, Milwaukee took Parker, and Philidelphia took Embiid.
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