Syrian Game Theory
For a little over two years the Syrian conflict has been slowly grinding on with neither side even close to resolution. To add to the complexity of the situation, foreign players such as the US, Russia, and the United Nations have been keeping close watch, adding new dilemmas—such as the chemical weapons negotiations—and altering strategies to an already tense game. Yes, I called it a game, and that is precisely how the LA Times Op-Ed article “A mathematical approach to Syria” suggests we can consider a game theory approach to analyzing the Syrian crisis.
As we learned in game theory, and as the article suggests, the purpose of such a game for both players is to get the best possible result or payoff. Essentially, since both sides do not know how the player will react, we can look at different possible strategies and their payoffs as a response to an opponents reaction. This will hopefully result in an equilibrium between both players where each gets his best result. Essentially, the Syrian war is a more complex version of this type of game—more players, more possibilities and less well defined payoffs—where the rebels and the government are looking to maximize their payoff—or in other words try and win the war or lose least painfully. As we discussed in Networks we can analyze this further by thinking of it as a “Hawk-Dove” situation where both players have higher potential payoffs by being more aggressive, but may end up losing more if both sides choose this strategy. This can be applied to the situation of diplomacy between Syria and the UN, US, and Russia. The Syrian government could have been aggressive—hawk like—and tried to avoid giving up their chemical weapons—might have provided a tactical advantage over rebels—but then would risk the US—who was also taking an “hawk stance” as opposed to Russia—and lost more in the process (the US would have also been hurt by getting entangled in another painful conflict). It is definitely not as simple as we have laid it out, but as the LA Times suggests, a new perspective and insight on how we can use mathematical concepts to analyze something as complicated as a war.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-cole-syria-game-theory-20130923,0,7397548.story