Information Cascades and the Snoeastercane of 2012
“Cornell University is OPEN”
This headline, appearing at the top of Cornell University’s status page, has remained unchanged for the past several days to the consternation of many. Over the past week, the hurricane of rain and wind was preceded by a hurricane of warnings and information: reporters describing the “perfect storm” that was the unholy product of multiple weather systems, city officials urging residents to evacuate to safer areas, and, perhaps most significantly to the Cornell community, school after school announcing cancellation of classes. As more cancellations were announced, Cornell faced more pressure to fall in line with the rest of the information cascade: “Look at how bad Sandy is supposed to be – everyone’s cancelling classes! If Sandy’s that bad, we should cancel too!”
Cornell, though, chose to stay open, and thus disrupted the seemingly momentum-filled cascade. Basing its decision on the actual information at hand – Ithaca’s location 200 miles inland, low chance of flooding, and little-to-no chance of tropical-storm-force winds – and perhaps a little bit mindful of previous occasions when the area has been largely spared by previous hurricanes and snowstorms, Cornell decided to operate as usual. Was this the right decision? With the benefit of hindsight, yes. As the data predicted, Ithaca has not been hit particularly hard; dreary skies and scattered, occasionally heavy showers are not especially unusual, after all. With Cornell remaining open, prelims did not have to be rescheduled and relocated, professors did not fall behind on their syllabi, and labs and sections did not lose a significant portion of their semester’s total meetings.
Of course, as any Northeasterner knows, the weather can always change in the blink of an eye. In a day or so, suspending operations may well become the best course of action. Nevertheless, we can at least rest slightly easier knowing that each update on Cornell’s special conditions page comes from actual analysis of the specific information available, rather than a broad imitation of “what all the other schools are doing.”
-spongebob
link: http://www.cornell.edu/cuinfo/specialconditions/#1559