The End of Nuclear Power – An Information Cascade
The recent disastrous earthquake that hit Japan caused many to immediately question the safety of nuclear power plants. Following the earthquake, damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant caused radiation scares across the country, and much of the damage was hard to contain. Even today, experts are finding that radiation exists in high levels in Northern Japan, present in the soil at levels that are unsafe for farming. As a result, much of the area’s food production is likely to be seriously affected. What was not expected, however, was the response from other countries, such as Germany, which made a rapid decision to terminate its nuclear program and phase it out in a matter of a few years.
Following this trend, Switzerland decided to begin the process of ending its own nuclear energy program. Preceding both of these countries was Italy, which ended its nuclear program in the 1980s following the Chernobyl incident. This quick shift towards abandoning nuclear power can be described in terms of an information cascade. In this scenario, all of these countries produce, or have produced, 40% or more of their country’s energy through nuclear power. The energy is clean and efficient. No nation in the European union today could be found guilty of the kind of neglect that characterized the Soviet Union, and so another Chernobyl isn’t likely. Most of Europe is not in any danger from a sizeable earthquake like the recent one in Japan, so a disaster of that kind is unlikely. Clearly, these nations are receiving mostly good signals from choosing to accept the use of nuclear power, and the payoff is quite good. Despite that, a trend is clearly occurring where governments are responding to citizens whose fears are outweighing good signals and high payoffs. A German commission described this sentiment on the ethics of nuclear power, stating “Nuclear power is a technology with too many inherent risks to inflict it on us or our children.” After these initial moves, it is likely that many countries will mimic this behavior, ignoring their own signals and focusing on the signals of those who reacted before them.
Links:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/30/germany-nuclear-power-plant-shut-down_n_868786.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15691571