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China’s Africa Strategy: Why an Information Cascade Could Undermine Chinese Interests in the Region:

China really is in a tough state, economically. With an entirely export reliant economy, their whole way of life could take a sharp downturn if it turns out that the United States or EU (if it still exists in a few years) stops buying China’s goods in the quantity that they currently do. As a result, China needs to look at expanding its import market and making their people consume more, or else economic disaster could strike in the very neat future.

 

One such place that could work very well for China is Africa. Africa has a history of foreign countries intruding in their affairs, and China, the newest economic super power, would be no exception. Africa, however, is realizing they don’t WANT foreigners intruding in their affairs, and this is impacting China in a very big way, as an information cascade is slowly making its way around Africa that shows that China is indeed a negative payoff.

 

One major issue behind China’s expansion in Africa is the fact that two of their most powerful previous allies (and oil exporters) were Libya (whose government was recently overthrown in a bloody revolution) and Sudan (which recently split into two halves, and the one with the majority of the oil is currently hostile towards the Chinese government). As a result, China needs to attempt to get this oil back, throwing a spanner into their other works inside Africa right now, as well as setting off a slight information cascade that a partnership with China is unprofitable (as in, they won’t prevent a government from being overthrown even if it is just another country actively working against China’s interests).

 

This is even more problematic when one considers the recent events in Zambia, a former British colony. Despite the fact that “China is the country’s biggest investor”, the current ruling political party won off a platform that “leaned heavily on anti-Chinese sentiment.” Upon further reading of the article, it only becomes more clear that an information cascade swept through Zambia, as people realized that a business relationship with them was incredibly unprofitable. Sata, the current president of Zambia, went as far to say “We welcome your investment, but as we welcome your investment, your investment should benefit Zambians and not the Chinese.” Considering that someone with so radical an ideal, and such a strong opposition from both the incumbent party and the Chinese, it is clear that a strong information cascade resonated from the lowest class all the way to the top of the country.

 

And that’s only the tip of the iceberg. If this cascade keeps going out of Zambia, and spreads to the rest of Africa, that will be a real problem for them on the world scale. As good as it is to have a firm sphere of influence in Southeast Asia, there are so many other great powers competing for dominance there that each needs an advantage. India has access to the Middle East, Japan extensive access to the west, and as it is, China just has Africa. For now.

 

http://the-diplomat.com/2011/11/14/is-china%E2%80%99s-africa-safari-faltering/?all=true

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