My Plan on Tech: Listen to others
http://visual.ly/droid-vs-ios-battle-ops
http://cube.ign.com/articles/086/086984p1.html
Learning about information cascades and early adopters of technologies has made me think back to the various choices I have made. I like to think that what I decide to purchase or do is for my best interest and is of value to me, but alas it seems I am slave to the hive mind. The overwhelming need is to follow what everyone else is doing in order to ensure the best for myself, not because I know it is the best for me, but rather it has been good for other people. Case in point has been all my technology purchases over the last 10 years.
I like to think I very carefully select my purchases by checking online reviews and with the experiences of my friends, but I realize I usually just follow what other people do. For example, when deciding between purchasing Playstation 2 and Gamecube, I consulted various reviews for the systems in order to decide, which could be considered private information or signals, but I ended up being more influenced by what all the children in my neighborhood had purchased, the Gamecube, and so I ended up getting the same thing. It seemed like a good decision at the time as I could trade games with friends but after a while it became clear who was the front-runner in the console race. It was not the Gamecube but rather the PS2, as it had superior hardware, more games and more support from developers. This is an example where a bad choice had some initial positive payoff but in the overall network of the world.
I have had similar experiences with cell phones. My most recent disappointment has been with my need to be an early adopter for Apple products. I have purchased both the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S, each had an initial problem, antenna and battery respectively. I made my negative payoff very clear to my friend circle, my network, and many have decided to go the droid path instead, a decision they have not regretted.
Clearly decision-making is a complex task and decides on a multitude of factors. There is no one-way to ensure positive payoff. But one thing is for sure, people will always judge from other user experience.