Competing Social Networks
Google+ is a three-month-old social network that is competing with Facebook for users. However, since both share much of the same functionality, it will be difficult for Google+ to catch up to the established network. This situation begs the question of whether there is room for two major social networks. It is most convenient if everyone a person knows is on the same social network; this person can then easily communicate with all of them. If a person’s acquaintances were split between two networks, this person would need to maintain accounts on both in order to keep in touch with of all of them.
Google+ gathered 25 million users in its first month. Most of these were probably people who were simply curious about its features. Now growth is undoubtedly slower, because regardless of Google+’s features, people are likely unwilling to shift their focus from Facebook. Consider a typical Facebook user as a node with several strong links to close friends, and a much greater number of weaker links to acquaintances or distant relatives (or complete strangers). All of these links discourage the user from spending time on Google+, because the two networks are isolated from each other. This person’s strong links will be the main factor in determining which social network he or she uses more. A person will naturally spend more time on the social network that has most of his or her friends; a user would only switch when most of his or her closest friends spend most of their time on the other site. The several hundred other “friends” that the user has never met will be much less influential. In this situation, it is not the superiority of the service that will determine popularity, as with almost all other services and products, but the real-life networks of personal relationships.
People can easily create accounts on both social networks, so it is not simply the number of accounts created on each social network that is important. Rather, it is the time spent by each user that matters. By offering superior features, Google+’s number of users may rise, but I predict that it will never catch up in terms of average time spent per user. The already-established network will continue to dominate.
http://www.informationweek.com/thebrainyard/news/social_networking_consumer/231700059/is-google-down-for-the-count