Monday, May 2nd, 2022 12:00 – 12:45 pm – Presentation with Live Stream 12:45 – 1:00 pm – Q&A
Cornell Institute for Digital Agriculture – Spring 2021 Seminar: Advancing One Health through digital agriculture
The epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for epidemic and syndromic surveillance
Polychronis Kostoulas, Associate Professor, Epidemiology & Artificial Intelligence, Faculty of Public & One Health, University of Thessaly, Greece
Abstract:
Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies. The Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI) is a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting the main COVID-19. From a One Health perspective, the application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks, in combination with existing early warning systems, will enhance our ability to act swiftly and efficiently control epidemics of zoonotic potential.
Bio:
PK is an Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Artificial Intelligence. His research focuses on (a) the use of Bayesian Latent Class models for the evaluation of diagnostics, true prevalence estimation, proof of disease freedom and (b) the development and application of artificial intelligence tools in disease surveillance.
Background on the Cornell Institute for Digital Agriculture:
An interdisciplinary group of Cornell University faculty began meeting in early 2017 to formulate an Initiative for Digital Agriculture, believing that Cornell is uniquely equipped to lead in this emerging arena that will benefit the public for generations. We define DA to mean the application of computational and information technologies coupled with nanotechnology, biology, systems engineering and economics to both the research and operational sides of agriculture and food production. With approximately 100 faculty from 5 Cornell colleges participating, we are collaborating with external stakeholders to shape and implement a research agenda for DA that will build a pipeline of discovery and innovations for the next 10+ years. Please contact Gabriela Cestero at gc423@cornell.edu with any questions.