CBS Survivor –The Ultimatum Game
https://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2018/12/survivor-angelina-rice-negotiation-jeff-probst/
The CBS hit television series, Survivor, has been called one of the “greatest social experiments” ever conducted. A group of around 20 people (depending on the season) are forced to work together to compete for a million dollars, while living on a tropical island with little food. As this article highlights, negotiation is one of the most important skills in the game. During the David vs. Goliath season, contestant Angelina bargained her immunity for more rice for her team. It seemed like a risky move, but it paid off. The article even references one of her tweets. Angelina says that after this negotiation, she, “…came out on top.” Ultimately, if a contestant is able to bargain and negotiate well, they have a much better chance of making it further in the game. On the other hand, if they risk a bad bargain, it is very plausible they will be voted out at the next tribal council, ending their chance at a million dollars.
In class we talked about the Ultimatum Game, where an individual is given some amount a money and told to make an offer to another individual. If the second individual accepts the offer, both “players” get to keep their share. If the second individual refuses, both players get nothing. A similar phenomenon is also seen in Survivor.
In every season of Survivor, there comes a point where there are two relatively big alliances. However, usually there is a known individual (or multiple individuals) at the “bottom” of these alliances. When this happens, the individual(s) can threaten to “flip.” This means that they abandon their original alliance and join the opposing “team,” the other alliance, because it will increase their chance of winning. Thus, each alliance has to constantly reassure each other and negotiate with the people on the bottom that if they continue to vote with them, they will take them to the end, even if this means lying. In other words, alliances have to make strong bargains or individuals will abandon their respective alliances and find outside options.
Ultimately, like the Ultimatum Game, there are instances in Survivor where an individual is forced to make an offer to someone else. If that person does not see the offer as fair or trustworthy, they will abandon that person and work with someone else, an outside option. Thus, to have a good chance of winning Survivor, the contestant must be good at making bargains that have the potential of satisfying both themselves as well as the individual (Nash Bargaining Outcomes), even if the bargain isn’t entirely truthful. Consequently, the winners of Survivor are usually incredibly talented liars and manipulators.