The Game and Theory Behind Nuclear War
Starting with the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States of America, the US-North Korea relationship can only be described as actively being strained at its best. With provocative claims and threats being haphazardly strewn across the table, the question of conflict and eventual war breaking out in the eastern hemisphere has almost become a question of “when”, instead of one of “if”.In this Washington Post article from Elizabeth Winkler, ther very real possibility of conflict with North Korea given rising tensions under Donald Trump’s presidency is analyzed and mapped into more definitive terms through the scope that game theory provides.
In the US, game theory has been applied to conflict resolution and planning in the past. Starting in the 1940s with John von Neumann’s work for in think tanks surrounding Cold War strategy, game theory as written about in his book “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior” has been a part of military planning essentially since its establishment as an independent field. One famous game and set of strategies that we were introduced to in this semester’s INFO 2040 lectures was that of the “Prisoner’s Dilemma”. In this game, two parties are both accused of a crime. Given the two choices of either remaining silent or betraying their partner, if they both remain silent, they get light sentences. If they both choose betrayal, they will receive heavy sentences. And finally, if one betrays and the other remains silent, the betrayer will be set free and the prisoner that remained silent will receive an even heavier sentence.
The current situation in which the US and North Korean leaderships find itself in reflects many aspects of this game as presented above. If both parties decide to go into conflict, it will most certainly ensue as a bloody fight with heavy losses on both sides, given the capabilities of both countries’ military forces. Nuclear war is also a very real possibility. If only one country launches a decisive strike and is successful, they will come out on top if they wipe the other of its ability to retaliate. However, if neither side takes action, peace can reign for one more dawn.
It’s very rewarding to be able to apply concepts such as game theory to very real situations in the world that we read and learn more about on a day-to-day basis. While primarily used in models and studies, game theory can also be applied to determine the behavior of entities larger than companies and individuals. Winkler goes even further in their analysis of the situation, positing that North Korea is not on par with the United States military capabilities. As such is the case, one cannot truly call this a balanced game like the “Prisoner’s Dilemma”. They also portray the conflict as a repeating Dilemma, where the same question of whether or not to initiate is considered every day. Finally, the differentiating factor in this conflict is the instability and unpredictability that the leadership of both countries brings to the table. In the author’s own words, no one can “be sure of how the US will react” to North Korea’s threats and vice versa.