Game Theory Says Pete Carroll’s Call at Goal Line Is Defensible
Game theory analyzes strategic strategies for two rational decision-makers. Usually game theory is used by economists or people studying policy to analyze interactions between certain groups. These groups range from larges companies to the superpowers of the world like the United States and China. However, game theory can be used to analyze the smallest of situations, like during one of the final plays of Super Bowl XLIX with the game on the line. During a football game coaches battle with each other, strategically, by call the play they believe will help them get the outcome they want (a win). Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have become some of the most well-respected coaches in the NFL. Interestingly enough, when Carroll decided to call a pass play on the goal line with under a minute to go in the game, it was deemed “the worst playcall in Super Bowl history”. Analyzing the situation using game theory might prove otherwise.
Even though the Seahawks arguably had the best running back in the league, it did not stop Carroll from choosing to throw the ball. The article explains that as an NFL coach it is best to call plays as randomly as possible, which is what game theorists call a mixed-strategy. In order for the Seahawks star running back to be effective, they are forced to pass in order to keep the defense from constantly anticipating the run. This theory also relates to the idea of the Prisoner’s dilemma in the sense that Pete Carroll knew that the Patriots would be preparing to stop the run. So it is interesting to think about what Carroll’s optimal strategy really was in this situation. Knowing the Patriots would be scheming to stop the run, did he make the best decision in attempting to pass? Or should he have given Marshawn Lynch the ball because this may have yielded a more optimal result regardless of the opponent’s decision?
It is intriguing to see how game theory can be used to understand everyday events and even smaller details, like just one single play of a football game. On average an offense calls about 75 plays per game. This one play where the optimal strategy may or may not have been used for the Seahawks, could have completely changed the outcome of the game. Regardless, game theory shows how decisions can be justified even when, initially, it may not have seemed like the right thing to do.