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Game Theory in North Korea Nuclear Weapon Situation

Game theory involves a mathematical model of of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers. In a case where there are multiple trials, i.e. the game is repeated infinitely, then there can be a positive outcome due to reciprocalism: both sides understand that there can be consequences if they do not cooperate with each other. However, in the case of nuclear weapons, there can’t be do-overs; once a nuclear weapon is detonated, or a war is triggered, the consequences can be detrimental and do damage to the world to the point of no going back. In the case of North Korea, and its recent development of nuclear missiles, we can see that the whole situation can be viewed as a dangerous game, one where making the wrong decision can lead to countless deaths and casualties.

In a simplistic perspective, we can treat this conflict as a Prisoner’s Dilemma. If both North Korea and United States cooperate, meaning both sides do not carry out any form of aggressive military action and come to an amicable agreement, this situation could be resolved. If one of the countries attack, the other country will face horrendous consequences and perhaps be completely eradicated. Lastly, if both sides take aggressive action, that can start a war or even before such a thing can happen, both countries are destroyed.

However, this situation cannot be just summed down to a Prisoner’s Dilemma, because there are more than two players in this game. We have to consider the attitudes of Russia, of China, of Japan, of South Korea, and other states. For instance, China can be pivotal to this game, as China is North Korea’s number one trading partner. And although UN imposed economic sanctions on North Korea in 2016, China has been hesitant about enforcing them and has done so half-heartedly. Now here’s a decision that China must make: help North Korea or don’t help them. China does not want North Korea to build nuclear weapons and become a threat, but China also does not want North Korean regime to collapse as that would create a refugee crisis at its border and put a unified Korean peninsula under US influence. This is where the application of Structural Balance Property comes out. China and North Korea form a friendly(+) relationship with a mutual “enemy”: the United States. Such fulfillment of Structural Balance Property makes the relationships “stable” and makes it very difficult to change, which suggests that China will continue to help North Korea.

Source: http://theconversation.com/what-game-theory-says-about-dealing-with-north-korea-78195

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