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The Rich Get Richer and Information Cascades in College Athletics

Often times in the world of competitive college sports, a small group of several teams seem to dominate the competition no matter the change in personnel experienced in the team. Although several small teams may rise to have a single great season, this success is often a one-year phenomena that is difficult to reproduce in following years. Therefore, college football teams such as those in the SEC and college basketball teams such as Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Michigan State seem to dominate every year. However, this repeated success from many teams is not something that is always spurred by a new coach or new emphasis on a program; many successful programs are those that have been historically successful.

If the concept were to be modeled in the “rich get richer” model discussed in class, it becomes clear why top teams seem to get the best players and have the most success year after year. If a college recruit were to choose any random school with probability p, or choose the school that beats any given team with probability 1-p, then the teams which have the most success will clearly have the highest chance of receiving top recruits. Since the most successful teams often win many games, there are many more situations in which they may be chosen as the school a recruit will attend.

However, the rich get richer phenomena is not the only factor in perpetuating the strengths of historic collegiate athletic programs. Information cascades also play a role in the decisions of players to commit to any given school. With informational effects, many top prospects may see that other top prospects are committing to a small number of schools and therefore through an information effect will choose to follow their peers by assuming the peers have some level of information that is not available to the individual.

Additionally, many top recruits are motivated by success. Players who perform at a high level are often very competitive and will seek to win games. When these players see their peers all commiting to one school, it makes one team appear to have a higher chance of success. Through a direct-benefit effect, players will follow their peers in order to maximize their chances of success. By following other top recruits, a player will automatically have a better team around them, giving them more ability to look like a good player, and a higher chance of winning games, providing a direct benefit to a player.

Therefore, the success of college athletic programs is often perpetuated by information cascades. New pieces of information such as a new program, new facilities, or a new coach may provide information which may draw in new prospects, creating a new information cascade, however. For example, after the hiring of Coach John Calipari, the University of Kentucky saw a large resurgence of success and talented players coming into the school. In John Calipari’s first year, the University of Kentucky basketball team saw a new level of college recruits that was unheard of in years previous. Several of the top ten college prospects in the nation all began going to Kentucky in the same year. Based on the information of a new coach able to recruit and shape talented players, a new cascade of highly talented players began seeing their way to Kentucky.

Similarly, a change in program may lead to a negative cascade for a program. While Bob Knight was a coach at the Indiana University basketball team, the University saw a great level of success and a large number of highly-rated recruits flocking to the program. However, after coach Bob Knight’s infamous chair throwing incident, assaults on players in practice, and subsequent dismissal, the program entered a new era of struggle. Since there was a new piece of information, that the legendary head coach of the program would be dismissed and a new coach would be hired, many players were deterred from the program. In years following, this would create an information cascade which would cause top recruits to avoid the program. Therefore, in the same manner, while information cascades help top programs reap the benefit of how the rich get richer, an event at Indiana caused an information cascade producing a “poor get poorer” phenomena. Since many players chose to avoid the program, more players became more likely to follow suit and avoid the program due to information and direct benefit effects.

It is then clear that information cascades play a large role in the continued success of college programs, especially in the recruiting process. Stronger teams always become stronger, unless an outside event halts their progress, and weak teams will always become weaker unless there is an outside event which spurs interest in the program.

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2015-11-28/athletic-success-takes-more-coach.html

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Bolt/By-The-Numbers-Caliparis-recruiting-success-at-UK-41035446

http://www.indystar.com/article/99999999/NEWS06/80904014

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