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Information Cascade in Growing Atheism in America

Information cascade is a concept that well explains a crowd inclining toward a single decision. It explains that you are usually better off following the crowd because the people in the crowd may know something you do not know (information-based) and because it is often the case that being part of a crowd has value in itself (direct-benefit effect).

 

What I found interesting was that I could link this concept of information cascade to the recent article I read about growing atheism in America. According to the article, “the past seven years have seen a fivefold increase in people who call themselves atheists, to 5% of the population, according to WIN-Gallup International, a network of pollsters. Meanwhile, the proportion of Americans who say they are religious has fallen from 73% in 2005 to 60% in 2011.”

 

I do not mean to say that America has reached a stage where a cascade for atheism has formed, and that most people will abandon religion in a few years. However, America seems to be at a period of transition where the former cascade for religion is being weakened. If this trend continues, it might actually reach a tipping point, from which cascade for atheism is formed and the majority of people turns against religion.

 

The current cascade for religion is obvious and can be explained by information-based benefit and direct-benefit effect. In 2005, 73% of the population said that they are religious. The majority’s decision to live in faith acts as a signal for those who are not religious—that since many people choose to be religious, there must be something good about being religious. Furthermore, being a part of the majority who are religious has benefit in itself. The article states that “Several states still ban atheists from holding public office. These rules, which are unconstitutional, are never enforced, but that hardly matters. Over 40% of Americans say they would never vote for an atheist presidential candidate.” Since being unreligious often harms them, Americans are better off being religious.

 

However, as statistics quoted above shows, this cascade for religion is getting weaker at an unexpectedly fast rate. As we learned in class, a cascade can be stopped when certain “new information” comes into stage. In this case, works of authors such as Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens act as the new information. Their disbelief in religion based on logic and science is convincing many people to follow the “New Atheism” movement.

 

Richard Dawkins predicts that “we are approaching a tipping point where the number of people who have come out becomes so great that suddenly everyone will realize, I can come out too.” In fact, what he describes as the tipping point is the point where cascade for atheism, or disbelief, is formed and from that point, atheists may actually be the majority.

 

As a Catholic myself, this was not a particularly exciting news, but the implications we could pull out from this article was certainly interesting. Being religious or not, which is supposedly based strictly on one’s thoughts and beliefs, may actually be influenced by other people’s decisions. And when we apply the concept of information cascade, the long-lasting dominance of religion may be upset one day. When that day comes, the majority will be atheists, and most people will figure that being atheist benefits them.

 

 

Source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/08/atheism

 

– Weigo

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