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Information Cascades and Presidential Campaigns

http://www.duke.edu/~jcr12/Rickershauser_Aldrich_FINAL%20VERSION.pdf

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pawlenty-drops-presidential-race-disappointing-straw-poll-finish/story?id=14301520#.TrhJHEMUqso

The 2012 Republican primaries are quickly approaching. With this comes a constant flood of information and news stories about the GOP Presidential candidates. Included in many media and personal discussions about the candidates are questions about a candidate’s standings in the polls and their chances of securing the nomination, and their likelihood of beating President Obama in the presidential election. This issue of “electability” is often brought up in the media and used as a reason for whether or not voters should select a certain candidate. This is relevant to the topic of Information Cascades that was discussed in class. In an information cascade, people may imitate or decide something based on what they observe earlier people doing. In discussing the presidential primary race, polls are often used as the basis for determining how electable a candidate is. For example, Mitt Romney is often described as the most electable candidate in the media, and is often reported as a front-runner in the polls in the media. However, since many potential voters receive political news from the media, they may use the stories the media is reporting to make their own decisions. If stories are being written about how Romney is a front-runner, this may be an important factor in reinforcing his position as a “top tier” candidate.  If people see that others view a candidate as viable, they may be more inclined to vote for him or her based on how other people are leaning. There have also been concerns about people “wasting their vote”, and they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate who they perceive as having a higher chance of winning. A candidate’s electability is often, but not always, tied to high poll standings. There have been constant examples in the primary race already of a candidate surging to the front of the polls, possibly due to information cascade. As people see that a candidate’s poll numbers are rising, they are more inclined to give more attention to that candidate once they see that other people and the media are considering them as a possibility. This in turn helps the surge. On the other hand, a candidate can be brought down in the same way. If people begin to consider that a candidate is not electable and that their poll numbers are dropping, it can quickly lead to a sudden drop in the polls. For example, Governor Perry has seen both types happen. He experienced a surge to the top of the polls and a large amount of media attention when he entered the race, and has seen his poll standings drop and questions about electability surface as time went on.

Presidential campaigns can often be related to information cascades. There may become a self-fulfilling prophecy during the primary season. If people see that a candidate is viewed as having a weak chance of winning the nomination based on earlier results in primaries or straw polls, they will often be less inclined to vote for them. Part of the reason can be because voters want to vote in a winner and do not want to see their vote “wasted” on a candidate who they see as having a slim chance of winning. Their decisions about chances of winning may be based on poll results and media coverage that leads to information cascades. In this article about Pawlenty dropping out of the presidential race, he gives his reason for quitting the race – “We had some success raising money, but we needed to continue that and Ames was a benchmark for that,” Pawlenty said. “And if we didn’t do well in Ames, we weren’t going to have the fuel to keep the car going down the road.” Because of the media’s emphasis on the Ames Straw Poll as an important early benchmark of a candidate’s electability and organization, a poor showing can lead to candidates dropping out, which is what Pawlenty did. A higher finish would have meant increased positive media coverage about his candidacy’s chances, which in turn due to information cascade may have led to a bump in the polls and more support for him once other voters saw that he already had support from other people. In presidential campaigns, there are questions about electability and a high emphasis is placed on a candidate’s poll standings. A Duke study on this very issue showed that voters are often strategic in making their final choices, and that electability is a key component of their decision. This can lead to surges and large drops in polls as voters often place at least some importance on what they perceive as a candidate’s chances of winning.

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