Keeping Info Under Wraps
Microsoft has been working on its new operating system, Windows 8, for some time now. Since the admitted failure of Windows Vista (http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1007806/microsoft-admits-vista-failure), it has clearly been working to avoid another disaster and release the operating system both at the ideal time and with features requested by users.
While the reasons for Windows Vista’s failure are still the subject of some debate, few can argue with some of the basic ones (listed by ZDNet here: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/the-top-five-reasons-why-windows-vista-failed/10303): the demonization of Vista by Apple, the penetration of XP into the market (which at the time was still quite strong), actual problems with Vista, among various other problems.
Part of the strategy in choosing a good time to release an operating system involves considering public opinion and rumors/bad reputation surrounding the operating system. I know at least for me personally, I had heard way too many bad things about Windows Vista before I even was considering getting a new computer, let alone deciding between XP and Vista. Rumors spread extremely quickly and can be hard to control.
This article: http://www.outofmygord.com/archive/2007/12/03/What-Makes-a-Rumor-so-Easy-to-Spread.aspx discusses how part of what makes rumors so viral is their ability to jump “clusters” – once rumors jump weak ties in a network, they spread very fast among strong ties.
In a study conducted in 1993, Jonathon Frenzen and Kent Nakamoto were interested in finding conditions that had to be met before a message would jump across a weak tie.
For the test, they used news about a sale. In one social network, they saw how fast word would spread about a 20% off sale. In the other social network, they used a sale where the discounts were a more remarkable 50 to 70% off. To introduce a moral hazard variable, they also altered the availability of sales items. In one case, quantities were very limited, and in the other, quantities were practically unlimited.
They found that “amongst strong ties, word of the sales spread fairly quickly in most instances. But when the message wasn’t that remarkable (the 20% off example), word of mouth had difficulty jumping across weak ties. Also, when moral hazard was high (quantities were limited) again, the message tended to get stuck within a cluster and not be transmitted across the weak ties.”
Moral hazard was an area specifically targetted by the study – in the context of Microsoft rumors and negative word of mouth in general, we know that moral hazard is usually zero, which is why the rumor spreads so fast. The article mentions that
“the better known a company or brand is, the more likely negative word of mouth will spread. If there’s bad buzz circling about Nike, McDonald’s or Starbucks, we’ll all take part because all those brands are part of our shared frame of reference. We’ve already assimilated them.”
It would seem that one way for Microsoft to dispel rumors would be for it to keep its operating systems under lock and key until they are ready for release, similar to Apple’s strategy. By releasing information only when features are implemented and Microsoft is ready to promote they would avoid, perhaps, some of the bad face caused by so many rumors.