Play Calling in Football: Increase your chances of scoring
I read an article the other day about how there was a study being done regarding the best formula for play calling in a professional football game. Two men named Kenneth Kovash and Steven Levitt studied a total of 125,000 plays from the course of the 2001-2005 NFL seasons. The sample they used only consisted of plays in which it was obvious that the team was going to run or pass. The play calling systems in the NFL are clearly “games” for both teams and all strategies need to be considered. This is an example of a zero-sum contest game, which means that the positive result for one team will result in a direct opposite negative result for the other team.
The two researchers analyzed each team’s expected points before and after the play and the results showed that passing the ball was much more effective. On average, the study found, pass plays gained .55 yards more per play than running plays, had a 9 percent higher likelihood of receiving a first down, and had a 1% higher chance of scoring.
These authors of the study found that increasing the amount of passing plays during the course of a game will allow a team to score more points in a year. Because the defense essentially has to guess what play you are going to run, the offense has the advantage of mixing up their strategies. However, according to the study, offenses give tells during a game. For example, if the offense has a bad passing play, they are about 14% less likely to perform a passing play on the next down. If the defense can understand the tendencies of most offenses, they will gain an advantage which will lead to fewer points given up and fewer yards allowed during the course of a game.
Finally, the researchers found that finding these tendencies in opponents, through watching game film or by studying they way that they play, will yield more wins and revenue gained during the year. Play calling in football is simply a zero sum game that creates positive outcomes for one team while equally harming another, but advantages can be found simply by figuring out which play is likely to come next.
http://www.nber.org/digest/oct09/w15347.html