A Note on Methodological Discussions in Published Articles

This very clever (and important) paper by Peter Aronow and Allison Sovey Carnegie on recovering the Average Treatment Effect from the Local Average Treatment Effect makes an interesting observation: …in a review of 34 empirical articles that employ IV estimation from…

Ethnolinguistic and Political Fractionalization Indices

Fractionalization and Competition Reprise

About nine months ago I posted about a peculiar finding about Indonesian local politics: the observation that there appeared to be high levels of political fragmentation in the most ethnically homogenous districts. It makes sense to observe that ethnic heterogeneity…

Chinese Indonesians in China

Following up on the recent post on Chinese Indonesians, I had a fascinating conversation with several colleagues from Kyoto University about Chinese Indonesians who have “returned” to China. Our focus was not on recent flows of comparatively wealthy Chinese, but…

Cowen on Keynesians on China

Internet debates on economic policy, economic thought, and current events are frustrating. Today’s exhibition: Tyler Cowen on Keynesians on China. Cowen, of Marginal Revolution fame, recently published a timely essay at the New York Times on how different schools of…

Chinese Indonesians, Then and Now

A hot issue in Indonesia right now is the gubernatorial race in the Jakarta Capital District. The race pits incumbent governor Fauzi Bowo and Nachrowi Ramli (Foke-Nara) versus Joko Widido and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Jokowi-Ahok). Ahok is Chinese Indonesian, and…

Policy Analysis without Causal Identification: Gun Ownership and State Terror (Part 2)

Yesterday’s post on gun ownership and state terror tackled an important issue for anyone interested in restricting firearms access in America: does widespread gun ownership help to protect citizens from tyranny? The simple cross-national evidence that I presented was not…

Private Gun Ownership per 100 people, 2007 data

Policy Analysis without Causal Identification: Gun Ownership and State Terror (Part 1)

Like many Americans, we are saddened and sickened by the recent shootings in Aurora and Oak Creek. Like many Americans, we have also been discussing (among ourselves, and with friends) the prevalence of firearms in the United States. There are…

Testing Islam’s Political Advantage

My paper on popular support for Islamist parties in new democracies has just recently been publishd at the AJPS. Here is the official version (gated), here is an older version (ungated), and below is the abstract. Across the Muslim world, Islamic…